Predicting for 2030, one Bitcoin may be sufficient to purchase a median house. Here are the main content points:
1. Introduction and predictions
• The speaker discusses when one Bitcoin could buy a house, many believe it might be achievable by 2030.
• The video represents personal opinions and does not constitute investment advice; encourages subscriptions and follows.
2. The impact of the dollar's departure from the gold standard (after 1971)
• In 1971, Nixon signed the act, removing the dollar from the gold standard, leading to the decoupling of the dollar from gold and triggering interesting economic phenomena.
• Median house price: In 1970, it only took 2.5 years of salary for a middle-income American, now it takes 6.6 years (about over $400,000).
• In the past: one person could work to support a family, buy a large house and car, and take vacations easily; now: costs for housing, education, healthcare, etc., have skyrocketed, while wage growth has lagged.
• Minimum wage priced in gold: In 1971, a week's work could buy 1.83 ounces of gold, now only 0.08 ounces, showing significant depreciation of the dollar's purchasing power.
• Inflation and currency overissuance: The rise in housing prices is not due to the appreciation of the houses themselves, but rather due to currency depreciation; productivity has increased, but wages have not kept pace, effectively taxing the public.
3. Economic inequality and asset investment
• Since 1971, the fiat currency system does not encourage saving, pushing people to consume quickly or invest in stocks and real estate.
• Historical housing prices: In 1970, it took 2.4 years of salary, in 1980 it took 3.8 years, in 1990 it took 5.4 years, now it takes 6.9 years.
• Smart people convert currency into real estate for hedging; the purchasing power of ordinary people is eroded.
4. The advantages of Bitcoin
• Bitcoin has a fixed supply, cannot be overissued, encourages saving, and discourages borrowing (the cost of repaying borrowed Bitcoin is higher).
• Storing earnings in Bitcoin can maintain purchasing power.
• Example of housing prices quoted in Bitcoin:
◦ 2016: The median house price in the U.S. was $280,000 ≈ 664 BTC.
◦ 2020: $320,000 ≈ 45 BTC.
◦ 2024: $430,000 ≈ 6.6 BTC.
◦ 2025: $430,000-$440,000 ≈ 3.7 BTC.
◦ Predicted for 2030: If housing prices double to $800,000, and Bitcoin reaches $1,000,000, it would only take 0.8 BTC.
• Currently, the price of Bitcoin ($110,000-$120,000) can buy a house in many places.