Bitcoin may start a mid-term adjustment from next week, with a retracement target possibly pointing to the 110,000 area.
From the current weekly structure, Bitcoin may be at the tail end of the fifth wave extension. Although it is still within an upward channel, the trend has shown obvious signs of fatigue, with both the magnitude and intensity of price increases not matching the previous main uptrend, indicating that market momentum is weakening, and there is insufficient willingness for new capital to enter the market, posing a risk of overdrawn bullish momentum.
On the monthly level, the current price is approaching the upper resistance area. If there are typical top signals in the future, such as a large bearish candlestick engulfing after a continuous rise, or a 'false breakout followed by a quick retreat' structure after a peak, it often indicates the formation of a temporary top. Given that the current position is close to historical resistance levels, investors should be wary of increasing reversal risks.
From the perspective of macro liquidity, potential pressure should not be ignored. With the implementation of the U.S. fiscal expansion policy, the new debt ceiling will force the Treasury to issue a large amount of government bonds in the coming months, with expected market liquidity absorption reaching up to 480 billion dollars, close to 15% of the current total market value of global crypto assets. Against the backdrop of tightening dollar liquidity, the crypto market may come under pressure, especially high-sensitivity assets such as Bitcoin.
In summary, based on technical and macroeconomic analysis, if there is no significant positive support, Bitcoin may enter a mid-term adjustment cycle starting next week, with the first support range expected to be between 110,000 and 112,000. Further declines will require observing changes in market sentiment and external capital flows.
For medium to long-term holders, it is not advisable to blindly chase highs at this stage. It is a more prudent strategy to patiently wait for clearer technical repair signals or signs of capital stabilization.