8.1: In-Depth Analysis of BTC Technicals

BTC Trend Analysis

Monthly Structure: July closed with a long upper shadow bullish candle, the length of the shadow is comparable to the body, indicating heavy selling pressure above and insufficient upward momentum. Combining with historical trends, a long upper shadow is often followed by a short-term adjustment, caution is needed for further retest risks.

Daily Level: Key Break: Yesterday's large bearish candle broke below the 30-day moving average and the bottom of the 116K range, confirming short-term bearish dominance. Recent declines have shown increased volume, while rebounds have shown decreasing volume, indicating weak bullish support and active bearish control.

Macroeconomic Impact: The U.S. July PCE data is on the hotter side, reinforcing high interest rate expectations, combined with large on-chain BTC transfers (suspected institutional sell-offs), selling pressure still exists in the short term.

4-Hour Short-Term: After a continuous volume decline, a pin bar rebound occurred, Asian session may see slight recovery, but the 116K-117K zone constitutes strong resistance, and further high shorts can be considered after the rebound.

If it breaks below 114K, then the next support levels to look at are 112K-113K; extreme situations may test the 110K level.

Shorting at resistance 116K-117K, with a stop loss above 118K, targeting 114K→112K.

If it directly breaks below 114K, the target is 112K-113K, pay attention to the risk of a pin bar rebound.

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