On the macro level, according to CME's 'FedWatch' data, the probability of maintaining interest rates in September is 54.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut reaches 45.7%; by October, the probability of maintaining interest rates drops to 34.6%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut rises to 48.8%, with a cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut at 16.6%. This uncertainty adds a layer of fog to the financial markets.
Meanwhile, many important news has emerged in the cryptocurrency sector. Jean Boivin, head of BlackRock Investment Research Institute, pointed out in a weekly commentary that recent laws in the U.S., such as the (Genius Act), have solidified the position of stablecoins as a digital payment method in the future financial sector. BlackRock believes that Bitcoin is expected to become a tool for diversified investment returns and a unique driver of risk and return, with stablecoins becoming a new component of future finance. The institution emphasizes that the core investment rationale for Bitcoin lies in the improvement of the current regulatory framework and the support of the U.S. government, which is driving the mainstream adoption of digital assets, indicating that the adoption rate of digital assets will further increase.
From the perspective of market participants, the enthusiasm of listed companies for holding cryptocurrencies continues to grow. According to The Block, as of now, the total market capitalization of listed companies holding cryptocurrencies has soared to $160 billion, a significant increase from about $90 billion at the beginning of 2024. This data marks the formation of a new trend where investors gain exposure to crypto assets through stocks. The growth over the past six months reflects a fundamental shift in corporate financial management strategies, with more companies viewing digital assets as legitimate balance sheet holdings. Moreover, many companies have seen significant double-digit increases in stock prices after announcing their allocation of crypto assets.
In the field of crypto ETFs, there have also been new developments. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated that the U.S. SEC has announced the listing standards for crypto ETPs through a new exchange proposal. According to these standards, any crypto asset that has been listed on the Coinbase derivatives exchange for more than six months will automatically qualify for listing. Currently, about a dozen mainstream crypto assets meet the criteria, which aligns closely with Bloomberg's earlier prediction of an approval rate exceeding 85%. However, the actual implementation timeline remains unclear, expected to be concentrated between September and October of this year.
On-chain data shows that market performance is relatively stable. The turnover rate continues to decline; although there have been some sell-off behaviors, it has not reached the level of market panic. For BTC, the current situation is not about rising buying power but rather a decrease in selling pressure; overall market sentiment remains good and has not affected the essence of BTC.
URPD data shows that the range of $103,500 to $108,500 has accumulated 1.545 million Bitcoins, becoming the first strong support level; the range of $93,500 to $98,500 has accumulated 1.634 million Bitcoins, serving as the second strong support level.
In summary, Bitcoin is currently still in a phase of volatile adjustment. The gap near $112,000 has not yet been filled; as long as Bitcoin does not reach a new historical high, there is still a possibility to fill this gap in the future. Market participants might as well patiently wait for Bitcoin's adjustment, as it is likely to regain upward momentum after the adjustment.