The cryptocurrency market has experienced a strong rally, but sentiment is beginning to gradually cool down. On-chain data shows that the activity level of the current 'new buyer' group is shifting from a previous high to a neutral range. During this round of market activity, from July 10 to 28, the phase of concentrated capital inflow has lasted nearly half a month, so the phenomenon of a decline in heat at this time is not surprising.
(Figure 1)
This change does not mean that the market will quickly turn bearish, but rather that it is more likely to enter a phase of horizontal consolidation, digesting the previous gains. Data shows that historically, when the activity level of 'new buyers' declines, the market often chooses to consolidate instead of making significant adjustments, thus accumulating momentum for the next round of market activity.
At the same time, data from the options market also provides corresponding evidence. Since July 23, the 25-delta skew indicator for one-week and one-month expirations has continued to rise, indicating that players' demand for protection against downside volatility is increasing. The widening premium of put options compared to call options shows that some market participants prefer to avoid downside risk in the short term.
(Figure 2)
However, from a medium to long-term perspective, the current chip structure remains robust. Large addresses continue to accumulate and have not shown signs of collective distribution. This indicates that, although the market has temporarily entered a correction period, it is not sufficient to signal a trend reversal. Rather than saying the market is turning bearish, it is more accurate to say this is a rational cooling process, creating a more solid foundation for future trends.