The Violent Hundredfold Rule: A Professional Trader's Contract Survival Memoir
1. The Mathematical Death Penalty of Compound Interest Fantasy
1. Reality Yield Model Comparison
10% monthly compound interest: $100 → $3091 after 36 months
Three opportunities with 10x leverage: $100 → $100,000
2. Exchange Liquidation Archive
Binance contract data for 2024 shows:
Users with more than 5x leverage have an average survival period of 17 days
Daily trading over 3 times results in a 92% probability of account loss
2. Cycle Hunting Tactics
1. Evolution of Volatility
BTC price daily fluctuation corresponding leverage safety value
$3,000 ±80 points ≤50x
$10,000 ±200 points ≤20x
$58,000 ±2500 points ≤3x
2. Three Cycle Positioning Method
mermaid
graph TD
A[Large Cycle: Bull-Bear Transition] --> B[Medium Cycle: 3-6 Month Swing]
B --> C[Small Cycle: 7-15 Day Fluctuation]
C --> D[Micro Cycle: 4 Hour Structure]
3. ETH Practical Case
Determining 2947 as the small cycle iron bottom basis:
On-chain whale cost line
Quarterly options maximum pain point
Weekly EMA21 support
Replenishment strategy:
Increase position by 5% for every 2% drop
Total position not exceeding 30%
Force liquidation set at -15% position
3. Quantum Mechanics of Risk Control
1. Position Equation
Maximum open position amount = Account net value × 0.02 / |Open price - Stop-loss price|
Example: $100,000 account, 300 point stop-loss → can open 6.66 BTC
2. Liquidation Thermometer
Funding rate > 0.1% → Reduce leverage by 50%
Exchange reserves suddenly increase → Close positions and wait
Unliquidated contracts reach a new high → Hedge open orders
4. Core Algorithm of the "Always Profit" System
1. Annual Opportunity Capture
Only participate in
Monthly MACD golden cross coins
Net outflow from exchange > 5%
Projects with surging development activity
2. Dumb Money Strategy Execution Checklist
Build positions every November (historical low point probability 72%)
Only buy the top 5 mainstream coins by market cap
Use 1-2x leverage
Stop-loss if it drops below the annual line
5. Ultimate Survival Credo
1. Be Friends with Volatility
When the market daily fluctuation > 5%, leverage must be <2x
Clear contracts when the volatility index (BVOL) breaks 120
2. Anti-Fragile Position Structure
70% Spot + 20% Low Leverage + 10% Cash
Any single loss not exceeding 1% of total assets
3. Immunity to the Cult of Deification
All "10,000 times in a year" stories hide
Sources of initial capital
Losses from other accounts during the same period
Team collaboration advantages
Remember: In this market, surviving longer is the highest form of flaunting
