策略

To be honest, after so many years in the crypto world, I no longer believe in any 'sure profit methods.' If there were truly guaranteed profits, would anyone share them? However, some strategies are indeed more suitable for ordinary people, so let me share some honest thoughts.
Holding Bitcoin and Ethereum is the most worry-free. Don't be fooled by the current price fluctuations; holding them for six months to a year and looking back is better than constantly trading. The key is being able to sleep at night without waking up to check the market.
Trading in waves is a technical endeavor, and the money earned is hard-earned. I generally withdraw when I make 10%-15%, never being greedy. Remember, the market is never short of opportunities; if you miss one, there will be another.
As for leverage, I advise beginners to stay far away from it. I've seen too many people using 20x or 50x leverage, only to lose their principal. If you really want to play, stick to 5x at most, and always set a stop-loss.
DeFi staking is relatively stable; choose reputable large platforms and be content with an annual return of 8%-12%. Don't chase after 30% or 50% returns; those are aimed at your principal.
Participating in new listings and airdrops is fine, but be vigilant. I have a principle: only invest in projects I can understand, never follow the crowd. Remember, free things are often the most expensive.
As for NFTs and news-driven investments, the water is too deep. I generally only use spare money to play around, and I won't feel bad if I lose it. If you really want to participate, first ask yourself: is this really an opportunity, or is it a trap set by others?
Lastly, a few heartfelt words:
- Don’t throw all your money in; at most, invest one-tenth of your assets.
- Keep large assets in a cold wallet; only leave operational funds on exchanges.
- Spend some time each day looking at the market, but don’t let trading consume your entire life.
This market is brutal but also fair. The effort you put in and the risks you take will determine the corresponding returns. I've taken many wrong turns on this path, and now I'm sharing these experiences in hopes of helping friends who are just entering the space. @交易员嘉哥
#特朗普取消农产品关税
#加密市场回调
#策略

If the joint support points of 96100 for 4 hours and 1 hour are broken and stabilized, then you will see 94500$BTC #策略

#xrp
The current price of XRP directly goes long or enters long in the range of 2.34–2.305

Strategy:
Entry: Range of 2.340-2.305
Take Profit: 2.42–2.47-2.533
Stop Loss: 2.237

Currently, the strategy for posting dynamic content on the homepage has a 100% win rate, please pay attention to good position management👇🏻👇🏼$XRP #策略

The strategy group is live from Friday to early Monday, private message me at #策略 to join the group chat.

I have met more and more people in the past two years, and I have some insights. I found that people who are good at cryptocurrency trading and those who have big businesses have one thing in common: they are all very honest to themselves.
I don’t know whether they cheat others or not, but they basically don’t cheat themselves. What position they are in, how much they weigh, the strategies they adopt, their risk tolerance, and cash flow planning, the overall logic must be self-consistent.
In life and work, in the end, they are actually some very simple truths:
How much cost you have, your approximate risk tolerance, and your expected return. These are the only things that are really useful.
As for whether you understand it or not, and whether you are gambling, I think everyone should know it in their hearts.
From 50,000 to 4 million, how to avoid 80% of investment traps? ​
When I first entered the circle, Bitcoin had risen to tens of thousands per coin. Looking at the 50,000 principal in my account, I didn’t follow the trend and chased high prices, but turned my attention to Ethereum and altcoins. Looking back now, this choice seems accidental, but it actually coincides with the survival logic of small funds - high volatility is not a risk for small funds, but an opportunity. The key lies in whether the gameplay is appropriate. ​
I have two core strategies: ​
1. Fund allocation: Don't put all your eggs in one basket, but don't spread them too thin. ​
I split the 50,000 yuan principal into three parts: 30,000 yuan invested in Ethereum (with a small amount of leverage), 15,000 yuan for the layout of altcoin spot, and 5,000 yuan for mobile funds. The beauty of this combination is that when the market is sluggish, Ethereum can withstand the risk and altcoins only suffer a small loss; when the market starts, the explosive increase of altcoins can easily cover the income of Ethereum, perfectly achieving the balance of "steady bottoming + aggressive profit-making".​
2. Anti-human operation: Don't be misled by the illusion of "balanced position"​
Most people will make a fatal mistake: seeing the coin in their hands rise by 30%, they will be uneasy, and quickly sell it to cover the coin that has fallen by 30%, and call it "balanced position". But the iron law of the market is: the strong will always be strong, and the weak will always be weak. ​
I once held BTC and ETH at the same time. At that time, BTC rose by 30% and ETH fell by 30%. 80% of people advised me to "sell BTC to cover ETH", but I did the opposite - sold ETH and added BTC. As a result, a month later, BTC rose by another 50%, and ETH continued to fall by 20%.​#投资 #策略 ​

#量化 #策略 At 10:45 AM, AI detected a change in the signal from empty to full, automatic operation. Those interested can check the homepage. Free

The Violent Hundredfold Rule: A Professional Trader's Contract Survival Memoir

1. The Mathematical Death Penalty of Compound Interest Fantasy
1. Reality Yield Model Comparison
10% monthly compound interest: $100 → $3091 after 36 months
Three opportunities with 10x leverage: $100 → $100,000

2. Exchange Liquidation Archive
Binance contract data for 2024 shows:
Users with more than 5x leverage have an average survival period of 17 days
Daily trading over 3 times results in a 92% probability of account loss

2. Cycle Hunting Tactics
1. Evolution of Volatility
BTC price daily fluctuation corresponding leverage safety value
$3,000 ±80 points ≤50x
$10,000 ±200 points ≤20x
$58,000 ±2500 points ≤3x

2. Three Cycle Positioning Method
mermaid
graph TD
A[Large Cycle: Bull-Bear Transition] --> B[Medium Cycle: 3-6 Month Swing]
B --> C[Small Cycle: 7-15 Day Fluctuation]
C --> D[Micro Cycle: 4 Hour Structure]

3. ETH Practical Case
Determining 2947 as the small cycle iron bottom basis:
On-chain whale cost line
Quarterly options maximum pain point
Weekly EMA21 support
Replenishment strategy:
Increase position by 5% for every 2% drop
Total position not exceeding 30%
Force liquidation set at -15% position

3. Quantum Mechanics of Risk Control
1. Position Equation
Maximum open position amount = Account net value × 0.02 / |Open price - Stop-loss price|
Example: $100,000 account, 300 point stop-loss → can open 6.66 BTC

2. Liquidation Thermometer
Funding rate > 0.1% → Reduce leverage by 50%
Exchange reserves suddenly increase → Close positions and wait
Unliquidated contracts reach a new high → Hedge open orders

4. Core Algorithm of the "Always Profit" System
1. Annual Opportunity Capture
Only participate in
Monthly MACD golden cross coins
Net outflow from exchange > 5%
Projects with surging development activity

2. Dumb Money Strategy Execution Checklist
Build positions every November (historical low point probability 72%)
Only buy the top 5 mainstream coins by market cap
Use 1-2x leverage
Stop-loss if it drops below the annual line

5. Ultimate Survival Credo
1. Be Friends with Volatility
When the market daily fluctuation > 5%, leverage must be <2x
Clear contracts when the volatility index (BVOL) breaks 120
2. Anti-Fragile Position Structure
70% Spot + 20% Low Leverage + 10% Cash
Any single loss not exceeding 1% of total assets

3. Immunity to the Cult of Deification
All "10,000 times in a year" stories hide
Sources of initial capital
Losses from other accounts during the same period
Team collaboration advantages

Remember: In this market, surviving longer is the highest form of flaunting

$ETH $TREE $BTC
#合约交易 #币安HODLer空投TREE #策略

AGT Big Meat Collection #BTC走势分析 #策略

Short Selling in Cryptocurrency: Capturing Bullish and Bearish Reversal Signals from K-Line (Part Three)

Short selling in the cryptocurrency market is not about blindly chasing declines, but about capturing certain reversal signals from K-Line and the dynamics of bullish and bearish battles. Combining charts, we will break down the core logic and practical points of short selling.

1. "Support and Resistance Swap": The Key to Trend Reversal
Support and resistance are the "battlefield" of the dynamic struggle between bulls and bears. When prices effectively break below support levels, the original support will turn into resistance for subsequent rebounds due to the pressure of trapped positions and changes in market expectations (as shown in the chart where previous support is broken and the rebound is precisely met with resistance). The "support and resistance swap" is the foundation for establishing a bearish trend and is the primary observation point for short selling.

2. "Bulls Unable to Break Through": Short Selling Warning
In the chart, being "rejected by the three-line bullish pattern" accurately reflects the "weakness" of the bulls. When prices attempt to break through key positions, if the K-line shows "a long upper shadow, a small bullish candle with low volume, or even closes bearish," it indicates insufficient bullish strength and is a signal that bears are starting to take control, necessitating caution for further declines.

3. "Failed Second Test of Resistance": Strong Confirmation of Reversal
When prices test resistance for the first time and pull back, and then attempt to rise again but are still "rejected by resistance" (such as closing bearish or forming a double top), it means that the resistance pressure has been repeatedly validated. After two failed attacks by the bulls, their confidence is shaken, and the bears seize the initiative. The "failed second test" is a strong signal of trend reversal, significantly increasing the probability of successful short selling at this point.

4. "Reversal Confirmation + Stop Loss": Unity of Knowledge and Action
When the K-line shows clear reversal patterns such as "bearish engulfing, evening star," it is the entry point for short selling; at the same time, set the stop loss above the resistance level — if prices break through resistance again, it indicates that the "reversal" is a false signal. Timely stop loss can avoid greater losses. This reflects the principle of "earning internal profits from cognition and controlling external risks" in the cryptocurrency market.

The core of short selling is recognizing the signal chain of "bull exhaustion and bear emergence": from the trend foundation of support and resistance swap, to the pre-warning of bulls' incapacity, to the strong confirmation of failed resistance tests, and finally entering through reversal patterns and risk control. Every step relies on interpreting K-line and the psychology of bulls and bears.
#Kriptocutrader
#策略

Evening Chat
In the past, weekends would often decline after a prolonged horizontal trend, now weekends are becoming more active week by week, with various scams jumping around and fluctuating over a thousand points. #BTC走势分析
Actually, the market is still struggling with direction, and the movements are minor skirmishes.
The daily chart's support is at the bottom, using a horizontal movement instead of a decline.
Bitcoin is on the 9th day of this wave of upward consolidation, one week short of the longest consolidation period of 15 days. The price is oscillating in the range of 101350-105200. The average price remains stable at 103000, indicating that as long as it holds strong positions, the chance for a price breakout is still relatively high.
In the 4-hour chart, around 103200 is still a small dividing line between bullish and bearish; above is 104500, and below is 102450. I believe that breaking through these two levels will lead to significant fluctuations. Since the current price is strong, a low bullish strategy is still feasible.
#ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Seeing the drop in the last couple of days, the market is unable to find direction.
Ethereum is still moving independently.
Ethereum has been relatively weak these past couple of days, after the positive data was released earlier and the sentiment was sustained. It is currently undergoing a normal correction, just dropping below the strong position (2550), but it is still under bullish control. If it rebounds and can hold above the low of 2535, it could rise again. A low bullish strategy can also be implemented.
#策略 #经验分享
Short-term reference
Ethereum's resistance is at 2535; if it breaks, aim for 2635.
If it cannot break through, consider bearish positions around 2440.

Bitcoin's resistance is at 104500, looking to continue upwards to 106000.
There is a chance it could drop back to 103200 without breaking, but it should still rise to 104500.
For now, no view on the volatility.

5/30感悟

盘面分析
11：00
$BTC 脱离110K-108K区间，趋势向下探。开盘后上扬暂未回到107K以上
大盘涨跌分布呈跌势强于涨势
15：00
BTC二次下探最低105K以下，大盘涨跌分布跌势偏重于涨势，个别涨跌幅度异常。风险性太大
20;00
BTC下探压力大
 
 
今天的盘面实在有点看不懂，索性就不做实盘了

复盘及感悟
1、#K线学习
一根K线说明不了太多
但两根及以上
它会表达很多
值得细细分析和学习
2、#稳定币
什么是稳定币
我不知道
但凭借它为了个人或特地群体私有化肯定不是
借此榨取他人也不是
具备稀缺性更不是
最重要的是不能获得大众信任和认可一定不是
3、
交易让我
学会敬畏
接受一切的发生
4、#策略
攻/守
攻和守也分很多种
攻是向内攻还是向外攻
有的内攻自我攻击寻求自我的突破
有的内攻自我攻击变成了内耗
有的外攻有时是主动的有时是被动的
守也是同样
所以当所处情况发生改变时
我们的决策也应随之调整
但都要围绕一个基点展开
趋吉避凶 趋利避害
5、#交易认知
复盘后的感悟
比盈利更有价值 
较亏损更值得
6、#认知社
方法可以成就道理
也可破坏道理
同样
道理可以成就方法
也可破坏方法
那么方法能否成为道理么？
比如诡诈的方法能否大行其道？

20x leverage, made nearly 8,000 oil in one go

🧠 My trading strategy
1. Be decisive in increasing leverage when the trend is clear: ETH and LINK continuously broke through key resistance, so I directly used a 20x small position to try and gamble on the rise.
2. Control margin + stop-loss and take profit: Before opening each position, I always set a stop-loss liquidation price to control risks, so profits can be secured.
3. A heavy position is not as good as multiple small positions: I won’t go all in; the combined principal of these two positions is just over 1500U, but the profits are maximized.
⸻

📌 Tip (for those new to contracts)
• Leverage is not a monster, but you must set a stop-loss;
• For profitable positions, not setting a take profit can easily lead to losses;
• Emotions should not drive trading, risk management must come first!

#交易技巧 #策略 #稳定币监管风暴 #以太坊突破3800 #以太坊突破3700

Seeking a strategy from a master, quantitative analysis, I really can't handle it myself, #量化 #策略

Attention beginners with less than 1500U: Don't blindly follow others in chasing the market. There are more stable ways to manage small capital.

Last year, a friend entered the market with 1100U, wanting to supplement his rent. Five months later, his account grew to 32,000U, with zero liquidations throughout. It wasn't luck, but rather this 'steady approach' that I want to share with you today.

1. Diversify: Split the 1100U into three 'safety lines'. First, divide it into three amounts: 350U, 350U, and 400U. Each amount has strict rules: the first amount is only for intraday trading, with a 2.5% profit target and 1.8% stop-loss; when it hits the target, you must exit — this money is for practice, so you won't feel bad about losing it, and it forces you not to be greedy. The second amount waits for weekly signals; never open positions if the risk-reward ratio is less than 1:2.8, and at most, trade 8 times a year, always 'aim before shooting'. The third amount is locked in a cold wallet, managed by family members with the key. Even if the first two amounts are lost, this 400U can be rebooted, and no matter how tempting the market is, don't touch it.

2. Wait: Stay away from the screen 80% of the time. Most of the market movements in crypto are 'ineffective fluctuations', like fishing when the water surface is still; fidgeting will only cost you fees. Go to the gym, read a book, and wait for a significant breakout or daily level break before returning to trade the second amount. As long as the profit exceeds 18% of the principal (for example, earning from 1100U to 1298U), immediately withdraw 25% to your bank account to turn digits into real money.

3. Rules: Let the system act as a 'discipline supervisor'. Set the rules as a screensaver: Red — a single loss of 1.8% will trigger an automatic stop-loss, no averaging down or complaining; Yellow — take profit on half when reaching 3.5%, and set a trailing stop for the rest (exit entirely if it falls below the 1-hour MA20); Green — if there are three consecutive small losses, force a 36-hour halt, as trading during bad moods will lead to losses.

4. Mindset: For small capital, 'slow is fast'. That friend had an annualized return of nearly 28 times, with a maximum drawdown of only 6.8%, relying not on catching spikes but on not hurting the principal when the market fell. Small capital should not have the mindset of 'rushing to recover losses'; 'steady approach' is not shameful, but blindly charging forward is a sure way to fail.

#十月加密行情 #策略

In one night, all was lost, with no return. The cryptocurrency market has no tears, only bills. So please set stop-losses before opening positions and plan your capital allocation wisely. #交易日常 #策略