The market generally expects that the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision will keep the target interest rate range unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%. If the decision meets expectations, the short-term impact on the market may be minimal.

The key lies in Powell's statements during the press conference. If Powell signals a rate cut in September, it will be a significant positive. This will reduce corporate financing costs, attract funds into the stock market, bond prices may also rise, the dollar may depreciate, and the prices of commodities like gold are expected to increase. If no specific timeline for rate cuts is provided, and only conditions such as inflation and employment are listed, it is neutral with a slight positive bias, indicating that the Fed has a tendency to cut rates, but it needs to be observed whether the conditions are met. If Powell emphasizes the necessity of maintaining interest rates and does not mention rate cut-related content, it is slightly negative, which may lead to capital outflows from risk assets, putting pressure on the stock and bond markets, and strengthening the dollar.

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