US-China Trade Negotiations Stalled, Market Awaits Federal Reserve Policy Signals
On Tuesday, both sides in the US-China trade negotiations in Stockholm released constructive signals, but no substantial progress has been achieved. The cryptocurrency market has also entered a wait-and-see mode this week, with BTC prices slightly retreating to around $118,000.
Reports state that Li Chenggang, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce's international trade negotiations representative, indicated that both sides have agreed to discuss extending the 90-day tariff suspension period that expires on August 12.
However, US Treasury Secretary Scott Pessen clarified that while the parties did discuss such a delay, “no decision has been made yet.” This means that although both parties intend to continue suspending tariffs, a specific extension agreement has yet to be finalized.
Currently, the US maintains a 30% tariff on Chinese imports, while China imposes a 10% tariff on US goods, creating a deadlock that has cooled market optimism regarding global trade prospects.
Market focus is quickly shifting to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision to be announced on Wednesday. According to Federal Reserve observation data, the likelihood of a rate cut this week is almost negligible, while the possibility of a rate cut in September has reached 64.7%.
During this period, any dovish signals could become a catalyst for Bitcoin to break out of its range consolidation. Analysts believe that this week’s macroeconomic events are crucial for the cryptocurrency market, as any macroeconomic news could trigger significant market volatility.
Although US-China negotiations have not made breakthroughs, President Trump previously indicated he might visit China at the invitation of President Xi Jinping, leaving room for imagination regarding future negotiations. However, in the absence of specific progress, Bitcoin's short-term movement remains constrained by the Federal Reserve's policy guidance.
In the rate decision on Wednesday, if Powell releases a clear easing signal, market risk appetite may quickly rebound, pushing cryptocurrencies back into an upward trend; conversely, if the tone is hawkish, Bitcoin may face further downward pressure.
