It's not gambling, but it has a bit of a gambling nature. Trading, in essence, is like Texas Hold'em; both are probability games, both seek to maximize the long-term winning rate, and the common goal is consistent: neither is pursuing a big win once or twice, but rather establishing a replicable strategy system to achieve stable profits in repeated games.
The commonalities between trading and Texas Hold'em.
The common goal is that neither is pursuing a big win once or twice, but rather establishing a replicable strategy system to achieve stable profits in repeated games.
Risk and odds matching: In Texas Hold'em, the size of the bet must match the strength of the hand; in trading, the timing of entry and the settings for profit-taking and stop-loss must match the risk-reward ratio and win rate.
Probability-driven decision-making: Texas experts rely on probability and expected value to decide whether to raise; trading experts rely on historical statistics and behavioral patterns to judge whether to enter the market.
However, the key difference in trading compared to Texas Hold'em is that there are no 'community cards.'
The probability space in Texas Hold'em is limited; your hole cards plus community cards total 52 card combinations. Through extensive hand experience and GTO models, professional players can approximate the 'optimal strategy.'
And trading has no 'clear cards.'
No one tells you the real distribution of chips in the market right now.
No indicator is a guaranteed signal.
No model can accurately predict tomorrow's candlestick.
The so-called probability advantage can only be explored through long-term data accumulation, backtesting statistics, and repeated training of feel.
Traders should think like poker experts, but remain calmer than them.
Texas Hold'em experts win hands through formulas and calculations, while traders need logic, discipline, and the willpower to resist distractions.
You cannot rely on 'feeling that this position will rise' to enter the market; you must be clear about every trade you make:
What is the win rate?
What is the profit-loss ratio?
Is it an A+ level opportunity defined within your system?
Trading is not predicting the future but constructing a system that can respond to various futures.
The 'GTO' model of trading is something you train yourself to develop.
You cannot apply someone else's indicators or methods, because your capital size, emotional reactions, and cognitive abilities are different.
You need to train out your own 'optimal solution':
Review each of your trades.
Collect your win rate and win-loss ratio data.
Backtest your strategy's performance under different market conditions.
Use discipline to combat impulses, and use systems to replace feelings.
The GTO of trading is not at the card table but in your daily records and reviews.
Lastly,
Victory in Texas Hold'em relies on 'clear calculations'; victory in trading relies on 'covert battles.'
Without community cards and no fixed probability space, you can only rely on one verified system, strategy, and experience after another to build your own 'long-term advantage' amidst uncertainty.
Have a little less fantasy, more calmness; do not be a predictive gambler, but a craftsman of execution.
Trading will not favor speculators, but will reward those who recognize the essence.
Reflections and insights from over ten years of trading cryptocurrency contracts, hoping to help everyone.
Contracts are essentially just a tool.
Before I started getting into contracts, I heard various opinions. Some people thought contracts were like a flood beast, while others believed they were a means for sudden wealth. But in reality, it's just a tool, and the key lies in how to use it. Typically, large funds use it for asset hedging, also known as hedging, but many people treat it as a shortcut to getting rich (I initially had such thoughts too). This is a zero-sum market; if someone profits, someone else must lose. Coupled with trading platform commissions and possible market manipulation by market makers, retail investors are indeed in a tough position; saying contracts are like a meat grinder is not an exaggeration. If you want to survive in this field, you must master the survival rules within it; only the fittest can survive.
When opening a position, be sure to set a stop-loss (please repeat this in your mind three times).
The stop-loss range can be set between 1 to 100 points, depending on the position size.
The so-called 'ever-winning method.'
Set stop-loss at the original price, first use one-tenth of the position to test the waters; if the trend judgment is correct, continue to increase the position, then take profits during pullbacks. It sounds beautiful, but reality is very harsh. Firstly, trend judgment is extremely difficult, and the market mainly moves in a volatile manner, with very few opportunities to catch one-sided trends. Secondly, even if the judgment is correct, continuing to increase the position will raise the original entry price, and once there is a slight pullback, it may trigger the original price stop-loss. The fees for frequent trades can also be astonishingly high. Although doing it right once can multiply your capital several times or even hundreds of times, doing this in the long run will ultimately just be working for the trading platform, with no sustainability, unless you make a profit and leave immediately.
Beginners often do not like to set stop-loss.
I have also walked through this stage. Once the emotion of loss aversion is amplified, it can drive people to madly chase trades, thereby infinitely expanding the risk. Once the capital chain breaks, one can only watch helplessly as the account gets liquidated, and often it happens before you even realize it. Originally, you just wanted to earn a fraction of a profit, but ended up losing all your capital.
There are methods to earn indefinitely from contracts, but they are certainly not something that beginners can master right away.
Many people participate in contract trading to earn big money with small capital, and to make a lot of money, there are only two paths: one is to win through position size, which means heavy investment; the other is to win through amplitude, like large drops such as 312 or 519, or large rises like going from 10K to 60K. To catch this amplitude, any analysis may be useless; there is only one way: do not take profits. The most sophisticated way to take profits is not to take profits at all, but this is extremely counterintuitive. Even 90 or 100 times may result in losses or break-even, and I cannot do it either. If the position is small, even with a big amplitude, you cannot make big money; if the position is large, even with a small amplitude, it is also useless, and it is easier to get liquidated. All those who make big money are masters who can balance position size and amplitude.
The market is unpredictable, just like soldiers have no constant formations and water has no constant shapes.
The market always moves in the direction of least resistance. Betting on trends and guessing sizes are essentially no different; learning all sorts of technical analysis may not help at all. Being able to read candlesticks and some basic things is generally sufficient. Technical analysis is actually not difficult; just remember this: if the trend is up, it will continue to rise; if the trend is down, it will continue to fall; if it rises a lot but retraces little, it will rise even higher; if it falls a lot but only bounces a little, it will continue to fall. The larger the cycle, the more effective this rule is. Once you understand these, you grasp the core rules of technical analysis.
What truly allows people to make big money is being within the trend.
Engaging in rolling operations within trends is fine; using small positions for back-and-forth operations during volatile markets is also not a problem. But if you develop this trading habit, it will be very difficult to have hopes of sudden wealth in your lifetime. Short-term trading may bring quick money, but losses can also come quickly; over time, you may earn less than the fees paid. If you think you are the chosen one, then go ahead and try, but be aware that losses often start from winning.
The timing of entry is very important; many operations that lead to losses are caused by the fear of missing out.
When you have no position, during the decline, wait for the rebound to open a short position; remember not to chase the decline. The same applies when the market rises; wait for the pullback to enter the market and do not chase the rise. This approach may cause you to miss some strong trend movements, but will generally be safer. However, many people only see profits and ignore risks, and in the end, they blame others for missing opportunities.
Do not be afraid.
Many people have lost so much in the futures market that they are afraid to open positions again. When they trade again, they become timid and hesitant. Losses can lead to an overly strong purpose in doing things, an excessive desire for results, always thinking about making a profit, always wanting to avoid losses, and wanting to do everything right. This mindset cannot lead to profitability. The ancients said, 'Do not rejoice in profit, nor mourn in loss.' In the trading field, this can be understood as: do not rejoice in profits, nor be saddened by losses. When your heart is calm enough, you will achieve something. Trade with the enthusiasm and passion you had on your first day of futures trading; do not fear the wolves in front and the tigers behind. If you are wrong, cut your losses; if you are right, hold on. Don't rush to exit before the trend reverses, or you will miss the opportunity.
Passion.
No matter what you go through, keep your passion and enthusiasm, holding a beautiful longing for life. Be as determined as you were on your first job, and love boldly like you did in your first romance. Many things in life are like this; whether in career or relationships, there may not always be results, and the probability is that there will be no results. But if you do not strive and do not give, then there will certainly be no results. Just focus on doing what you should do, and do not worry too much about the outcome.
Many people think about opening positions every moment, even fully investing; for them, being out of the market is more uncomfortable than losing.
In fact, the duration of trend movements is often very short; controlling pullbacks is the most important thing. How to control pullbacks? Staying out of the market is the best method. Do not always think about capturing every segment of the market; catching one or two opportunities in a year is enough. Missing out is very normal; there is no need to regret it. As long as you are still in this market and live long, there will be many opportunities in the future. Time is the only chip for retail investors; maintain a calm mind, wait patiently, making money is just a byproduct, enjoying life is fundamental.
The mindset and insights of trading.
In trading, the mindset is more important; knowledge is like techniques, while the mindset is like internal strength. Just like Qiao Feng can defeat several Shaolin monks with the Taizu Long Fist, it's because he has profound internal strength. Being able to see clearly is not very useful; what matters is what to do after seeing clearly, and what to do after seeing incorrectly, how to maintain position determination, how to have a good mindset, how not to fear missing out, and how not to fear pullbacks. If you always hold the mindset of wanting to win and fearing to lose, it is very difficult to make money in this market. Some things newcomers may not grasp immediately, but as long as you stay in this market for a long time, you will know that these are truths.
Remember, you do not become rich through a single blow; you survive by discipline.
You can earn big money not because you caught a wave of market movement, but because you endured how many crashes, resisted how many temptations, and avoided how many impulses.
In loss, hold back your emotions; in profit, control your greed.
The end of trading is 'human management.'
