Caution! The Night Before the ETH Plunge, the Last Frenzy of the Bulls?
Recently, ETH has been strongly fluctuating in the $3800-$3900 range, and many people interpret the current trend as building momentum, with some even shouting the bullish slogan of "Ethereum 10th Anniversary + Main Bull Market Wave." In the face of this enthusiasm, we should calmly recognize the following facts:
Currently, many institutions are performing "pump and dump" operations at high levels. On one side, institutions like SharpLink Gaming are publicly purchasing ETH for staking, while on the other side, on-chain staking withdrawals are queuing up, setting historical records. This pattern of simultaneous long and short positions, with capital flowing secretly, can easily lure retail investors into buying at high prices.
The upcoming FOMC meeting + PCE + Non-Farm Payrolls triple data hammer is approaching. Although the Federal Reserve is not raising interest rates in the short term, it is still uncertain whether it will release clear expectations for interest rate cuts. If Powell continues to "sit on the fence" or issues hawkish rhetoric, it will directly impact the crypto market.
In addition, the Ethereum 10th Anniversary event will be held on July 30. Although the NFT giveaway event has a significant emotional stimulus effect, the **historical curse of Ethereum "always dropping during events"** has not been lifted. The previous Shanghai upgrade and the merger event were all the beginnings of adjustments after good news was realized.
The current trend of Ethereum is highly likely not a continuation of a bull market but rather a "bull trap" at a stage peak. Technical indicators diverging, on-chain withdrawals surging, macro variables interfering, narrative positives being realized... all risk factors are accumulating. Once $3900 is breached, ETH may test the $3700-$3600 range in the short term. If market sentiment releases panic, it may even test the downside gap of $3400-$3200.
This is not bearish singing, but a risk warning. If the market truly strengthens, there's no need to fear waiting for confirmation; but if it's the night before a plunge, hesitating for a second could be the start of being harvested. Of course, if you choose to seek fortune in danger, I have nothing more to say.
