#ETH重返3800 $SOL Impact of the reciprocal tariff implementation on the market on August 1

1. Core content and latest developments of tariff policy

1. Current negotiation results

Agreements reached: EU (15% tariff), Japan (15% auto tariff), UK (10% + aerospace exemption), etc.

Unresolved countries: Canada (may face 35% tariff), India, Brazil, etc. Negotiations continue but significant differences remain.

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2. Short-term and mid-term impacts on Bitcoin

Short-term (before August 1)

Risk appetite rebounds: After the US and EU reached an agreement on July 27, Bitcoin jumped from $114.7K to $119.8K within 24 hours, with a daily market cap increase of 1.4%.

Key driving logic:

Easing trade tensions → weakening dollar safe-haven demand (dollar index falls to 97.5) → funds flowing into risk assets (cryptocurrencies, US stocks).

EU's $75 billion energy procurement agreement increases market liquidity, indirectly benefiting the crypto market.

Mid-term (after August 1)

Potential bearish pressure:

Chain reaction of countries without agreements: If Brazil, Canada, etc. face 50% tariffs, global supply chain disruptions may increase inflation → Fed interest rate hike expectations rise → pressure on risk assets (including Bitcoin).

Institutional selling pressure continues: Recent Bitcoin ETF weekly outflow of $175 million; if macro uncertainty intensifies, it may amplify selling.

Key technical levels:

Support: $117,650 (EMA120), if lost, it may test $116,000–$114,000.

Resistance: $120,000 psychological level, a breakthrough requires sustained volume.

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3. The evolution of Bitcoin's positioning as a 'risk asset' or 'safe-haven asset'

Risk asset attribute dominance:

Recently strengthened correlation with US stocks (S&P 500 futures), trade benefits simultaneously boost both.

Gold fell to $3,330 after the agreement, indicating funds shifting from traditional safe-haven assets to high-risk targets like Bitcoin.

Potential hedging logic:

If tariffs trigger currency devaluation in emerging markets (like Vietnam, Brazil), Bitcoin may partially replace gold as a haven for cross-border capital, but inflation data needs to validate this.

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4. Key variables to watch before and after August 1

1. Unresolved country negotiation results: If Canada, India, etc. reach agreements in the last 24 hours, it may boost market gains; conversely, a 50% tariff will trigger panic selling.

2. Federal Reserve policy signals: If the July 31 interest rate decision and PCE inflation data exceed expectations, it may offset tariff impacts and dominate Bitcoin's direction.

3. On-chain data warning:

Bitcoin 'risk aversion signal' lasts for 97 days (the longest in nearly three years), indicating an increased probability of a mid-term pullback.

Ethereum staking withdrawal queue of 694,000 ETH (approximately $2.64 billion), if accelerated withdrawals occur, it may trigger a liquidity crisis.

Conclusion: Bidirectional volatility intensifies, short-term bullish but mid-term under pressure

Before August 1: Optimistic sentiment from agreements supports Bitcoin testing $120,000, but caution is needed for profit-taking after good news is fully priced in.

After August 1: The tariff impact on unresolved countries, Federal Reserve policy, and inflation data may become new bearish factors; if it drops below $117,650, it may trigger accelerated pullback.

Long-term logic remains intact: institutional ETF inflows (cumulative $779 million this year) and EU capital injection still provide support at the bottom.