$BTC Short-term Trading Strategy (July 29, 2025)
Core Volatility Range: 115,600 - 119,500 USD
Key Central Point: 117,300 USD (Bull-Bear Watershed)
Intraday Operating Logic
1. Bullish Layout
- When the price stabilizes above 117,300, tactical long positions can be established
- Target Range: 118500 - 119200-120500 (Previous High Resistance Area)
- Stop Loss Reference: Effectively breaking below 116,800 (Hourly Chart Close Below)
2. Bearish Trigger Conditions
- Only when the price touches the range of 120,300-120,500 and a triple signal resonance occurs:
∙ K-Line Stagnation Pattern (Long Upper Shadow/Cloud Cover)
∙ RSI > 70 + MACD Histogram Divergence
∙ Rapid Increase in Hourly Volume Followed by Quick Shrinkage
- Otherwise, avoid counter-trend operations, structural bullishness remains intact
Trend Structure and Risk Control Points
- Macro Form: Weekly Level Maintains Upward Channel, Short-term Strong Volatility Correction
- Volatility Characteristics:
∙ Volatility Contraction (Bollinger Band Width < 3.5%)
∙ Avoid chasing breakouts before effectively breaking previous highs
- Position Strategy:
∙ Focus on Low Longs at the Range Lower Edge, Single Trade Risk < 1.5%
∙ Small Time Frame (Below 15 Minutes) Signals Need to be Confirmed by 4-Hour Chart
> **Note**: Closely monitor the CME futures gap (118,200) during the US trading session, if it does not break through 119,500 with volume before the European session, some bulls may choose to take profits.
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Key Data Support
| Indicator | Value/Status | Signal Meaning |
|------------------|------------------|------------------------|
| ADX | 28 (4H Chart) | Trend Strength Neutral |
| Futures Funding Rate | +0.012% | Bullish Leverage Controllable |
| Large On-chain Transfers | 3 transactions > 5,000 BTC into Exchanges | Potential Selling Pressure Warning |
The strategy balances technical structure and market microstructure, it is recommended to dynamically adjust risk control in conjunction with CME opening time (Beijing Time 20:30).
