Recent Market Conditions
Busy during the day, today's report is being updated.
Briefly reviewing, BTC has been in a high-level oscillation trend between 116500-120000 for some time. The daily chart has attempted to break through multiple times, all failing. Now, a strong concentration point has formed near 120000. There have been constant reports of large institutions adding positions, but the daily volume indicator has not shown clear weakening. It's evident that institutions are capping selling and unloading, then oscillating back from 116000.
In the stablecoin market, USDC Treasury has recently printed over 1.5 billion USDC in batches on the Solana chain this week, while also destroying on the Ethereum chain. USDT has also printed tens of billions in batches on the Tron and Ethereum chains. Hence, the increase in liquidity marks the beginning of the stablecoin war. This is now an upgraded version of the stablecoin cold war:
Circle (USDC) considers itself the 'on-chain executor of the US Treasury' and wants to dominate RWA and compliance.
Tether (USDT) is the true 'Federal Reserve' of the crypto world; it prints money at will, dominating market liquidity.
Behind it is the ecological battle between Solana and Ethereum;
On the surface, it's about on-chain destruction and issuance, but in reality, it's a redistribution of monetary power in the global financial reshaping.
It is also the large issuance of USDC and USDT entering the market in the short term, driving the rebound of SOL and the overall altcoin.
Market Sentiment
Greed/Fear Index: 71, slightly down from yesterday, but still clearly in the 'greed' zone. It has been steady for the past few days, with no obvious sector rotation signs. The rally time and sentiment are concentrated in the US market hours and domestic early morning.
Liquidation Data: In the past 24 hours, 158,000 people were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of 572 million USD, still fueled by shorts, with a small portion from altcoins, mainly concentrated on BTC. Today, Ethereum's adjustments have affected many altcoins, while BTC remains at high levels, continuing to oscillate high and clearing some shorts. (24-hour data; I was busy during the day.)
Liquidation Structure: In the past 30 days, cumulative long liquidations reached 21.7 billion USD, and shorts 8.2 billion. Altcoins have adjusted, but market sentiment is strong, and it hasn't dampened the bullish sentiment; shorts are still weak.
Review of the overall market conditions
Mainstream
Yesterday, it was suggested to buy low at 11.8W-11.7W, with a stop-loss around 11.64W. This morning at 8 am, after a quick drop and recovery, we can only look for another opportunity to enter. So far, ETH has had an intraday adjustment of about 2.5%, but BTC is performing well; high-level oscillation may continue. The turning point is still on August 1; spot trading is suggested to exit over 70% around July 29 for risk avoidance, waiting for subsequent adjustments.
Several SOL ecological coins emphasized yesterday have all had rebounds this morning, with BOME rising over 10%, but has since retreated.
BTC Trend Breakdown
Support Level:
First Support: 117300, a small support level, short-term oscillation small range.
Second Support: 116200, breaking it will likely test the lower channel.
Resistance Level:
First Resistance: 120000 (previous high dense area + BOLL middle track suppression), a touchstone for short-term bulls; consecutive weekly breakouts have all ended with upper wicks.
Second Resistance: Around 121000 (previous initial high point), must break through with volume to regain the main rise, belongs to a secondary new high.
Operational Suggestions for BTC:
I suggest maintaining a 'oscillating slightly bearish' operational rhythm:
If it rebounds to the 120000-121000 range, short positions can be attempted, with stop-loss set at 121500.
If it pulls back to around 117300 - 116200, observe for buying opportunities, with stop-loss set at 114900.
Currently in a high-level stagnation structure, the market is mainly oscillating within a box; use limit orders in the range, do not chase market orders.
Operational Suggestions for ETH:
Lower support level:
First Support: 3600 (short-term upper channel), previous adjustment lagging point.
Second Support: 3540 (previous platform peak + moving average support)
Upper Resistance Level:
First Resistance: 3800 (current peak), is the threshold for further bullish volume.
Second Resistance: 3880, watch for risks of a pullback after reaching.
Operational Suggestions for ETH:
ETH's strong breakout from the box maintains a bullish outlook:
Do not look at altcoins, the trend is too urgent and not suitable for trading without reference points, high risk; just do synchronized altcoin rebounds.
Altcoin Sector
Currently holding WCT and SOL in altcoins, BOME has had a slight pullback in the short term, but don't rush; just hold your positions. The cost for WCT is around 0.338, for SOL it's around 176, and for BOME it's around 0.0023. Currently, BOME has a minor loss, and the others have stop-losses set to break even.
Summary and Operational Suggestions
BTC is still in a high-level oscillation structure; it is recommended to use a box strategy of 'high shorts and low buys', do not chase prices and maintain stop-loss.
ETH's strong structure continues; buy on dips, short on stagnation; observe quietly without excessive operations.
Altcoins set to break even stop-loss levels.
Strategy unchanged: control positions + structurally participate in main sectors + avoid chasing traps + stagnation altcoin bottom layout.
Review of the overall market conditions
Mainstream
Yesterday, it was suggested to buy low at 11.8W-11.7W, with a stop-loss around 11.64W. This morning at 8 am, after a quick drop and recovery, we can only look for another opportunity to enter. So far, ETH has had an intraday adjustment of about 2.5%, but BTC is performing well; high-level oscillation may continue. The turning point is still on August 1; spot trading is suggested to exit over 70% around July 29 for risk avoidance, waiting for subsequent adjustments.
Several SOL ecological coins emphasized yesterday have all had rebounds this morning, with BOME rising over 10%, but has since retreated.
BTC Trend Breakdown
Support Level:
First Support: 117300, a small support level, short-term oscillation small range.
Second Support: 116200, breaking it will likely test the lower channel.
Resistance Level:
First Resistance: 120000 (previous high dense area + BOLL middle track suppression), a touchstone for short-term bulls; consecutive weekly breakouts have all ended with upper wicks.
Second Resistance: Around 121000 (previous initial high point), must break through with volume to regain the main rise, belongs to a secondary new high.
Operational Suggestions for BTC:
I suggest maintaining a 'oscillating slightly bearish' operational rhythm:
If it rebounds to the 120000-121000 range, short positions can be attempted, with stop-loss set at 121500.
If it pulls back to around 117300 - 116200, observe for buying opportunities, with stop-loss set at 114900.
Currently in a high-level stagnation structure, the market is mainly oscillating within a box; use limit orders in the range, do not chase market orders.
Operational Suggestions for ETH:
Lower support level:
First Support: 3600 (short-term upper channel), previous adjustment lagging point.
Second Support: 3540 (previous platform peak + moving average support)
Upper Resistance Level:
First Resistance: 3800 (current peak), is the threshold for further bullish volume.
Second Resistance: 3880, watch for risks of a pullback after reaching.
Operational Suggestions for ETH:
ETH's strong breakout from the box maintains a bullish outlook:
Do not look at altcoins, the trend is too urgent and not suitable for trading without reference points, high risk; just do synchronized altcoin rebounds.
Altcoin Sector
Currently holding WCT and SOL in altcoins, BOME has had a slight pullback in the short term, but don't rush; just hold your positions. The cost for WCT is around 0.338, for SOL it's around 176, and for BOME it's around 0.0023. Currently, BOME has a minor loss, and the others have stop-losses set to break even.
Summary and Operational Suggestions
BTC is still in a high-level oscillation structure; it is recommended to use a box strategy of 'high shorts and low buys', do not chase prices and maintain stop-loss.
ETH's strong structure continues; buy on dips, short on stagnation; observe quietly without excessive operations.
Altcoins set to break even stop-loss levels.
Strategy unchanged: control positions + structurally participate in main sectors + avoid chasing traps + stagnation altcoin bottom layout.
#BTC #ETH
