Recent market situation
Starting from August 9, the market has initiated an initial rebound. The trigger for the rebound started from the 90-day tariff buffer extension. Since the market explosion began, BTC has bounced from a high of 107K to 123K, while ETH has rebounded from 2520 to a maximum of 3826, with a maximum rebound of 50%, thus driving the overall market recovery.
From a micro news perspective, a large amount of USDT has recently been issued on Ethereum and Tron, with a small amount being destroyed on Ethereum and a large amount being issued on Solana, which clearly injects liquidity into the chain. The trend of altcoin rebound in the short term is very clear.
BTC and ETH continue to diverge in the short term. BTC is defending the 120K node in a high position, while ETH continues to rebound rapidly towards previous highs. The current key node is August 1, when a new round of tariff buffers expire. We need to observe the latest dynamics and handling methods from the US. If the approach is 'heavy hand, light touch' (the market currently has no clear long or short resistance, the real altcoin season may not be far off, and the market is continuously recovering), if the approach is 'heavy hand, heavy touch' (a firm attitude on economic sanctions, the recent surge in the market has just provided a large adjustment space for the market).
Market sentiment
Greed/Fear Index: 72, slightly down from yesterday, but overall still in a clearly 'greedy' range. In recent days, market sentiment has remained at a high level with little fluctuation. The market is also waiting for a breakthrough in news or for Ethereum to drive the rebound of altcoins.
Liquidation data: 160,000 people were liquidated in 24 hours, totaling $800 million in liquidation, still fueled by shorts, with a small portion from altcoins. The largest liquidations in the market in the past half month have been in ETH, with a total amount exceeding $6 billion.
Liquidation structure: Cumulative long liquidations reached $20.8 billion within 30 days, short liquidations at $6.62 billion, long positions continue to accumulate, shorts continue to be cleared and digested. In recent days, the intensity of shorts in the market has increased by nearly 50%.
Review of the overall market
Mainstream
Research reports are written from Monday to Friday. Last Friday, the operation direction for BTC's high sell and low buy was given. ETH was not included in the trading range due to large fluctuations in the market. BTC was given a low buying range near 117000-115800. Over the weekend, the lowest point for BTC's pullback hit around 116300, which was a perfect entry point. Currently, BTC has returned to around 119200, directly capturing a 2000 point gain.
Regarding altcoins
Last week, we repeatedly emphasized laying out SOL ecosystem tokens, waiting for a rebound, especially highlighting that
JTO (currently up more than 10%)
WIF (currently up more than 20%)
JUP (currently up more than 13%)
The current rise is still in a slight rebound. Holders should not rush to exit; there will still be a significant rebound later.
BTC trend breakdown
Support level:
First support: 118300 (24EMA support + short-term stabilization platform) small support level, short-term oscillation small range.
Second support: 117500 (MA52 + previous wave low point), breaking this will likely test the lower edge of the channel.
Resistance level:
First resistance: 120000 (previous high dense area + BOLL middle track pressure), a touchstone for short-term bulls, with a continuous week of breaking above ending with upper wicks.
Second resistance: near 121000 (previous initial high point), needs a volume breakout to regain the main rise, belonging to a new high.
Operation suggestion for BTC:
I suggest maintaining a 'oscillating bearish' operation rhythm:
If it rebounds to the range of 120000-121000, consider trying a short position with a stop loss set at 121500.
If it pulls back to around 118000-117000, observe for low buying opportunities, set a stop loss at 116400, and if it breaks, wait for the 114500 area to stabilize.
Current high position stagnation structure, the market is mainly in a box-type oscillation, placing limit orders in the range and avoid market price chasing orders.
Operation suggestion for ETH:
Lower support level:
First support: 3735–3714 (upper edge of the short-term box) previous adjustment stagnation position.
Second support: 3561 (previous platform top + moving average support)
Upper resistance level:
First resistance: 3980 (current stage high), which is a threshold for bulls to further increase their positions.
Second resistance: 4100 (macro historical entrapment area), pay attention to the risk of pullbacks after reaching this level.
Operation suggestion for ETH:
ETH strongly breaks through the box, maintaining a bullish outlook:
Do not look at ETH; the trend is too urgent and not suitable for trading without reference points, which increases risk. Just synchronize with the altcoins for the rebound.
Altcoin sector
SOL ecosystem is rising strongly
USDC large-scale issuance injects blood into Solana, with the next emotional outbreak window:
JTO (MEV narrative + staking yield liquidity staking service provider)
WIF (representative meme coin of the Sol chain)
JUP (DEX track attention continues) JUP (DEX track attention continues) JUP (DEX track attention continues)
Still the few tokens shared last week. The rebound to the current position is still relatively small, and there is still significant rebound space above in the short term.
In addition, there is another token worth continuous attention: WCT. Some time ago on Weibo and in the square, Old Vine led everyone to rush in and it has risen nearly 10% so far. This token is an old project, with its initial tokens only released this year. The current market cap is low, and there is great space for growth in the future. Opportunities to enter the market can still be found.
Summary and operation suggestions
BTC is still in a high position oscillation structure. It is recommended to use the box strategy 'short high and buy low', do not chase the rise and manage your stop losses well.
ETH strong structure continues; buy on pullbacks and short on stagnation. Observe quietly without too much operation.
The market's structural rotation is obvious; chasing hotspots is not as good as getting in position early. Patiently wait for the news to come out after August 1.
Main line is clear:
SOL chain injecting liquidity, ecosystem tokens are迎来补涨窗口 (welcoming the rebound window)
ETH L2 leverages USDT injection to continue the main rise.
The structure of altcoins is diverging; need to heavily invest in the main line and lightly speculate.
Strategy remains unchanged: control position + structurally participate in main line sectors + avoid chasing high traps + layout in the bottom of lagging altcoins.
#BTC走势分析 #ETH
