Powell's speech tonight, the biggest variable for the second half of 2025 has arrived
🌕Powell's speech tonight, the biggest variable for the second half of 2025 has arrived
📅Time: Beijing time July 22nd at 2 AM
📍Occasion: A rare voice during the Federal Reserve's blackout period, the market is holding its breath!
Many people have privately messaged asking: What exactly will Powell say this time? Is it a crisis or an opportunity? What impact will it have on Bitcoin, US stocks, and the US dollar exchange rate?
I will highlight the key points for you in 3 minutes 👇
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🔮1. Interest rate hike or cut? This is the key anchor
This speech is very likely to signal the monetary direction for the next 3 months, especially regarding whether there will be a rate cut in September, setting the tone:
• ✅If dovish (hinting at a rate cut) → Abundant liquidity, asset prices will be reassessed, BTC may surge to 130,000, and tech stocks may rally again
• ❌If hawkish (continuing to emphasize inflation) → May initially be bearish, but panic spikes could instead present buying opportunities
🏦2. Can traditional banks “play with crypto”? This phrase hides a big opportunity!
If Powell continues to support banks in compliant crypto layouts, it would be a significant boon for Coinbase, Grayscale, and ETF funds!
📍Key words to focus on: “Compliance + Bank + Digital Asset”
💥Tip: After the speech, if US stocks pre-market see unusual movements like $COIN, it's a signal that the market is jumping the gun!
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💵3. If stablecoin legislation is implemented, be careful of being cut!
The key point is coming—if the speech mentions “Stablecoin Regulation,” this is good news for USDC/DAI, while non-compliant coins face a critical juncture!
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📈The logic for the stock and currency markets is also very clear:
• US stocks: If dovish, tech stocks/NASDAQ may rise in the short term; if hawkish, high valuation sectors may correct
• USD/JPY: If the speech is dovish → USD index falls → JPY strengthens in the short term
• Gold: If the speech is dovish, it will stimulate gold prices to reach new highs
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🧠Conclusion:
Powell's speech this time may be the clarion call for the “wind” in the market in the second half of 2025.
To survive in the trend and not be cut in emotion, focus on these three things:
1⃣ Interest rate tone
2⃣ Whether banks can “play with crypto”
3⃣ Stablecoin regulatory framework
🧩The market is never short of signals, only those who are prepared ahead of time are lacking.
