THE 0.425 USD Encountered Resistance! Follow the Three-Step Method: Buy on Pullback at 0.40, Chase Long at Breakout 0.43, Stop Loss Below 0.39 — Profit and Loss Ratio 2.8 Times
THE Short-Term Fluctuated at the Top of the High Trading Density Area Between 0.40-0.43 USD, RSI72 Overbought + Market Sell Orders Dominant, First Wait for Pullback Around 0.40 as a Value Anchor to Go Long, If Breakout at 0.43 with Increased Volume, Can Chase Long, If Drops Below 0.39, Immediately Stop Loss, Profit and Loss Ratio 2.8, Pay Attention to the Potential Drawdown Risk of 9.7% with 24h Contract Position Reduction.
Key Interval Structure
1. Value Anchoring Area (POC): 0.4237, Maximum Trading Volume in the Past Two Weeks 135 Million, Up Vol 61% Still Dominated by Buyers.
2. High Volume Area (HVN): 0.4148-0.4237, 0.4548-0.4593, The Former as Pullback Support, The Latter as First Target After Breakout.
3. Low Volume Gap (LVN): 0.40-0.4059 (70% Coverage Area Lower Edge), If Price Quickly Returns to This Band, Considered a Bear Trap.
4. 70% Trading Volume Coverage Area: 0.4059-0.5837, Current Price 0.4251 Located at 24% of the Interval, Not Overbought, but Close to Upper Bound.
Momentum Verification: Up Vol 61% Above POC, HVN 0.4148 Up Vol 52%, If Pullback Up Vol > 60% Then Bullish Continuation; If Drops Below LVN 0.40 and Down Vol > 55%, Then Short-Term Turn Bearish.
Market Cycle
Short-Term is in the “High Position Fluctuation” Phase: 7-Day Increase of 34.7%, Contract OI Decreased 9.7% During the Same Period, Long-Short Ratio Increased from 1.47 to 1.60, Indicating Retail Investors Chase Long, Main Force Reduces Position, Need to Guard Against Pullback.
Trading Strategy
• Conservative Pullback Long: Place Long Order at 0.400-0.4059 (Upper Edge of LVN), Stop Loss at 0.390 (Below HVN), Target 0.430 (Upper Bound)/0.454 (Next HVN), Profit and Loss Ratio (0.430-0.402)/(0.402-0.390)=2.8.
• Aggressive Breakout Long: If 15m Close Price Stably Above 0.430 and Volume > 20 Bars Average 1.5 Times, Can Chase Long at Market Price, Stop Loss at 0.420, Target 0.454, Profit and Loss Ratio 2.4.
• Counter-Trend Short: Only When Drops Below 0.390 and Down Vol > 55%, Light Short Around 0.400 on Rebound, Stop Loss at 0.410, Target 0.370, Profit and Loss Ratio 3.0.
Risk Warning
• Continuous 8h-24h Decrease in Contract OI, Main Force Reducing Position May Trigger a Deep Adjustment.
• Large Spot Sell Orders Hanging at 1.8 USD, Considered a Forward Liquidity Trap, Limited Short-Term Impact, But If Price Unexpectedly Rises, Need to Be Cautious of Rapid Drawdown.
• Single Position ≤ 1% of Account Equity, Avoid Heavy Positions During U.S. Stock Market Open and Macroeconomic Data Release Periods.
