After four straight months of impressive gains, Bitcoin (BTC) has shown its first signs of exhaustion, closing the first red weekly candle of July. While the overall sentiment among analysts remains cautiously bullish, emerging data is pointing toward a potential market cooldown or consolidation phase.
Whale Activity Spikes – A Signal to Watch
One of the most notable red flags comes from the Whale-to-Exchange Flow data. This metric tracks the amount of Bitcoin large holders (commonly referred to as whales) transfer to exchanges — a move often interpreted as preparation to sell.
According to crypto analyst Darkfost, past bull cycles saw a surge in whale inflows to exchanges, typically exceeding $75 billion just before price corrections began. In the current cycle, data shows that between July 14 and July 18, 2025, whale exchange transfers have already topped $45 billion — a substantial increase signaling heightened whale activity.
Lookonchain, a blockchain intelligence platform, echoed this concern, reporting that a seasoned whale moved 400 BTC (valued at over $47 million) to Binance, securing total profits nearing $91.5 million. Such actions suggest that influential market players are beginning to lock in gains.
Long-Term Holders Are on the Move
Beyond whale behavior, on-chain metrics are hinting at shifting investor sentiment. The Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric — which measures how long coins are held before moving — surged to its highest level in over a year during July. CryptoQuant reports that the 30-day average CDD has climbed past 31 million, marking the most significant movement since April 2024.
This spike in CDD indicates that long-term holders are becoming active, often a precursor to selling pressure. While some view this as a healthy redistribution to new market participants, historical trends show it frequently occurs ahead of sharp corrections.
Divergence in Altcoin Correlation
Another emerging anomaly is the declining correlation between Bitcoin and altcoins. Data from Alphractal's Altcoin-Bitcoin Correlation Heatmap reveals that the index has dipped below zero — a sign that altcoins have recently outperformed Bitcoin.
While on the surface this might seem like a positive development for altcoins, history suggests otherwise. In 2025 alone, the correlation metric has turned negative three times. Each instance — in January and May — was followed by a significant decline in Bitcoin’s price. The current shift marks the third such warning this year.
Regional Premium Discrepancies Raise Questions
Adding to the mixed signals, there’s now a growing gap between the Coinbase Premium (US-based buying pressure) and the Kimchi Premium (South Korean demand). This divergence suggests uneven demand across global markets, with the recent rally likely being driven disproportionately by U.S. institutional investors.
Conclusion: Is Bitcoin Losing Steam?
While the broader market hasn't turned decisively bearish, the combination of increased whale exchange activity, elevated CDD, weakening Bitcoin-altcoin correlation, and regional premium divergence points to a potential period of consolidation — or at least a pause in the rally.
Traders and investors should tread carefully. These warning signs don’t confirm a reversal but should be seen as early indicators of shifting market dynamics. Staying informed and monitoring key on-chain data could be essential to navigating what’s next for Bitcoin.
DYOR No Financial advice!
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