🔍 One, Core Fundamentals: The scarce value of all-chain liquidity infrastructure
1. Technical positioning and ecological performance
- 'Liquidity Union' model: StakeStone has built a full-stack protocol for cross-chain asset staking + distribution, allowing users to stake ETH/BTC to earn interest-bearing tokens STONE (similar to Yu'e Bao), which can be used across chains for DeFi scenarios; simultaneously provides cold start liquidity for new public chains (e.g., Berachain, Scroll) via LiquidityPad, directing over 800 million USD TVL to single projects.
- Data highlights: TVL peak of 1.3 billion USD, total liquidity distribution of 3.6 billion USD, covering 20+ chains, 100+ protocols, supporting 90% of Manta's TVL and 86% of Berachain's pre-deposits.
2. USD1 stablecoin cooperation: A 'nuclear-level' catalyst for entering traditional finance
- Role: Become the official minting channel for the USD1 stablecoin (issuance of 2.1 billion, fifth largest stablecoin globally) backed by the Trump family + all-chain liquidity hub.
- Strategic value:
- Short term: Provide multi-chain distribution for USD1 (e.g., Polygon, Aptos), collect minting fees and liquidity management fees.
- Long term: Layout for payment licenses (Singapore, Hong Kong), open up compliant entry for fiat → USD1, tapping into the trillion-level market of cross-border settlements for SMEs, digital nomad salaries, etc.
💰 Two, Valuation Analysis: Revaluation space under triple driving forces
Valuation driving factors:
1. USD1 growth leverage: If USD1 issuance exceeds 10 billion USD (benchmarking USDC), StakeStone as the core distributor, annual fee income may reach 30-50 million USD (estimated at a 0.3%-0.5% fee rate).
2. Token economic model:
- Dual token mechanism: $STO (governance) + veSTO (lock-up dividends).
- Lock-up reduces circulation: Users lock STO to exchange for veSTO to gain bribery benefits from cooperative projects (e.g., BERA mining doubles), current circulation is only 22.5%.
- Deflationary design: Ecological protocols need to destroy STO when using liquidity, TVL growth directly enhances scarcity.
3. WLFI ecological collaboration: WLFI plans to go live with trading in 6–8 weeks, expected FDV of 13 billion USD (predicted by Polymarket), if StakeStone continues to supply liquidity, it will share valuation premiums.
📈 Three, Potential Market Value and Price Path
Neutral expectation (2025 Q4):
- Scenario assumption: USD1 issuance reaches 5 billion + WLFI trading goes live + TVL increases to 2 billion.
- Valuation range:
- Optimistic FDV: 1.5 billion USD → STO price $0.15 (up +268% from current price)
Basis: Horizontal comparison with LayerZero (FDV 3 billion) and EigenLayer ecological protocol valuation center.
Explosive scenario (2026):
- USD1 becomes a mainstream settlement stablecoin + StakeStone captures 10% of cross-chain stablecoin liquidity.
- FDV exceeds 5 billion USD → STO price $0.5 (up +453% from current price).
⚠️ Four, Risks and Market Misjudgments
- Token inflation risk: Total supply of 1 billion STO, 76% not in circulation, unlock pace unclear (needs monitoring of team announcements).
- Competitive product squeeze: Lido's wstETH multi-chain expansion, LayerZero's OFT standard may siphon off demand.
- Regulatory black swan: If USD1 faces regulatory crackdown in the US (Trump's political connections), the cooperation value will be reassessed.
💎 Conclusion: STO - The underestimated all-chain liquidity 'plumber', expected to become a leading dark horse in the cross-chain track by 2025. $STO
