According to the latest information, here are some key dynamics for Litecoin (LTC) in 2025:

1. ETF Application Progress:

• Asset management company Canary Capital Group has submitted a revised S-1 application for a Litecoin spot ETF to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), indicating that they are advancing relevant plans. Although the 19b-4 form (a key document in the approval process) has not yet been submitted, this move is seen as a positive signal that the SEC may be engaging with Canary. If the ETF is approved, it will provide investors with a more convenient LTC investment channel and may significantly boost its price.

• Grayscale has been continuously increasing its LTC holdings since November 2020. As of July 2025, client holdings have exceeded 2 million LTC, indicating growing institutional interest in LTC.

2. Ecosystem Expansion:

• Lunar Digital Assets has launched LitVM based on BitcoinOS and Polygon CDK, a zero-knowledge Layer-2 network compatible with EVM, aimed at introducing smart contract functionality for LTC, supporting DeFi, Web3 applications, and real-world assets (RWA). This move may enhance the application scenarios and attractiveness of LTC.

• The Litecoin Foundation supports the development of LitVM, showing efforts in technological innovation within the LTC ecosystem.

3. Expansion of Payment Scenarios:

• Dubai duty-free shops and Emirates Airlines plan to accept LTC payments, indicating an increased adoption in real payment scenarios.

• Data from crypto card transactions in Europe shows that LTC and other major cryptocurrencies are used for daily payments (such as groceries and dining), demonstrating its potential in the small payment sector.

4. Countdown to Halving Event:

• August 2025 Halving: The block reward will decrease from 6.25 LTC to 3.125 LTC. Historical data shows that prices usually rise in the 3-6 months leading up to a halving. The current circulating supply of LTC is about 76 million, with a total supply of 84 million, and scarcity might support the price (scarcity expectations).

5. Other Developments:

• Luxxfolio Holdings is accelerating its LTC reserve strategy through $2.5 million in private financing, indicating corporate optimism towards LTC in the long term.

• The Litecoin Foundation is tracking the implementation of drivechains on the LTC network, which could further enhance network functionality and security.

Technical Analysis

• Current Trend: According to candlestick chart analysis, LTC is currently in a consolidation trend, and the Williams indicator shows no overbought or oversold conditions, suggesting continued sideways movement in the short term.

• Key Price Levels:

• Resistance level: $120-130 (recent high, February data). If broken, it may challenge $150 or higher.

• Support level: $80-90 (March low). If it falls below, it may further test $60-70.

• If the ETF is approved or BTC continues to rise, LTC may break through resistance and enter an upward channel.

• Trading Volume: Recent trading volume has fluctuated significantly (e.g., decreased in March, increased in February), requiring attention to the relationship between volume and price. If trading volume increases and price rises, it may indicate a trend reversal.

Price Forecast for the Second Half of the Year

• Optimistic scenario (probability 40%): If the ETF is approved and BTC remains strong (above $100,000), LTC may break through $150, challenge $200 or even higher, driven by institutional funds and market sentiment.

• Neutral scenario (probability 50%): If ETF approval is delayed but market sentiment remains stable, LTC may fluctuate in the $80-130 range, gradually testing higher resistance levels.

• Pessimistic scenario (probability 10%): If the ETF is rejected or macroeconomic conditions worsen (such as the Federal Reserve raising interest rates), LTC may drop to the $60-80 range, testing long-term support.

Summary

Litecoin has certain growth potential in the second half of 2025, mainly driven by ETF application progress, ecosystem expansion (such as LitVM), increased payment scenarios, and the spillover effect from BTC. However, market volatility, competitive pressure, and regulatory uncertainty may pose risks. Investors are advised to closely monitor ETF approval progress, BTC price trends, and LTC trading volume changes. In the short term, it is recommended to wait for the support level of $80-90 to stabilize before gradually building positions, while long-term investors may look forward to the value growth brought by its ecosystem development and scarcity.