#CryptoMarket4T LINK Rocket Launch? Last Breath Above 18.5, Miss It and Wait Another Six Months!
Summary: LINK is overbought in the short term + contract shorts are adding positions, 18.7-19.0 is the bull 'death zone', a pullback to 17.7-17.3 is the opportunity to buy low; if it breaks down with volume below 17.0, the trend will reverse. Stop loss below 17.0, target 19.75, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.5, position ≤ 1%.
Key Ranges and Volume Distribution
1. Value Anchoring Zone: POC 15.67 (7.48 million units, 70% trading volume area 13.18-18.72), current price 18.51 has left the high trading area, in the 'overbought territory'.
2. High Trading Volume Zone:
• 18.48 (6.51 million units)——Last buffer zone above, if it breaks down with volume, it will trigger a bull stampede.
• 15.67-15.91 (5.60-7.48 million units)——Medium-term strong support, pullbacks can be bought low.
3. Low Trading Volume Gap:
• 18.96-19.24 (1.43-0.69 million units)——Liquidity void, breakout or rapid crossing area.
4. Momentum Verification: Around 18.48 Up/Down Volume ≈ 56%, buying momentum has weakened; 15.67 range Up Volume 55%, still in bull dominance.
Market Cycle Judgment
Daily level: 7-day increase of 18%, contract OI 7 days +4.3% but the long-short ratio dropped from 2.55 to 2.18, shorts are adding positions significantly, in the 'terminal acceleration' phase, may pull back to value area at any time.
Trading Strategy
• Aggressive: Short position at current price 18.5 with small amount, stop loss 18.75 (outside 18.48 HVN), target 17.7, risk-reward ratio ≈ 3.2.
• Moderate: Wait for a pullback to 17.7-17.3 (LVN + liquidity accumulation area) to go long, stop loss 17.0 (below 15.67 POC), target 19.75 (sell-side liquidity 204k), risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.5.
• Conservative: Break below 17.0 confirms trend reversal, short on rebound at 17.3, stop loss 17.6, target 15.7, risk-reward ratio ≈ 5.5.
Risk Warning
• Contract funding rate of 0.01% is extremely low, short costs are controllable, if bulls continue to add positions, a second peak may occur.
• Spot market has seen a net outflow for 5 consecutive days -1.84M, beware of 'pump and dump'.
• Strategy invalidation: Daily closing back above 19.2 or breaking down with volume below 16.5.
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