C's spot volume surged 81% in the past 24 hours, but contract positions have decreased for 8 hours, funding rate only 0.00005, long-short ratio dropped from 1.14 to 1.01; price is about 1.9% below MA200, short-term selling pressure is accumulating. If HVN in the 0.29 area is lost, will retest the 0.26–0.27 value area; if held, may aim again for 0.32–0.34. Aggressive retest long, conservative break short, stop-loss at 0.25/0.34, risk-reward ratio 2.1–2.4, position ≤1%.
Key Interval Structure
• Value Anchor (POC): 0.2962, nearly 256 million trading volume, repeatedly faked out intraday before recovering.
• Major HVN: 0.283–0.302 (7 consecutive high-volume bars), 0.315–0.325; price is likely to rebound in this range.
• LVN: 0.345–0.355, 0.25–0.26; trading volume is significantly thin, once broken, will quickly traverse.
• 70% Volume Coverage: 0.155–0.527; current price is slightly above the midpoint, not overbought.
• Up/Down Volume: Up 76% in the POC area, Up 79% at 0.26 HVN, showing bulls are still dominant; Up only 58% above 0.31, momentum is weakening.
Auxiliary Indicators
• Bollinger Bands: 71.6% level, upper band at 0.322, lower band at 0.224; price is 9% away from the upper band, has room for a pullback.
• MA200: 0.3003, price is about 1.9% below the line, if closed above at 4h, it is considered a confirmation of trend reversal.
• OI: Decreased by 0.95% in 24h, decreased by 1.01% at 4h level, short-term long positions are exiting.
Trading Strategy
1. Retest Long (Aggressive)
Entry: 0.270–0.276 (LVN + HVN overlap, Up 79%)
Stop-loss: 0.264 (outside lower HVN)
Target: 0.296 (POC) → 0.315 (next HVN)
Risk-Reward Ratio: 2.1 at 0.296; 3.0 at 0.315
2. Range Short (Conservative)
Entry: 0.310–0.315 (Bollinger mid-band + HVN upper edge, Up 58%)
Stop-loss: 0.322 (Bollinger upper band)
Target: 0.296 (POC) → 0.270 (lower HVN)
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1.9 at 0.296; 4.0 at 0.270
3. Breakout Long
Trigger: 1h close with volume breaking 0.322 (LVN), Up Volume ≥ 1.5 times the average of the previous 20 bars
Entry: 0.323–0.325
Stop-loss: 0.315
Target: 0.34 (far HVN)
Risk-Reward Ratio: 2.4
Risk Warning
• Key breach: No HVN support below 0.264, may drop to 0.22; no LVN above 0.322, short stop-loss is dense.
• Macro: ZK sector funds rotate quickly, hotspots shift leading to significant pullbacks; high contract leverage, large pin risk.
• Risk Control: Single trade risk ≤1%, avoid high volatility 0:00–2:00 UTC; if Up Volume < 40%, exit immediately.
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