🚀「ETC above 24.5 USD giant whale surge」: POC value anchored at 24.85, short-term pullback may welcome an 8% rally window!
ETC is sticking to the upper Bollinger Band at 24.5 USD, heavy selling pressure above POC 24.85, short-term selling pressure is dominant; if a pullback occurs in the 23.5-24.0 range with buyer volume increasing (Up Vol>60%), one can enter long positions, targeting 26.0-27.2, with a stop loss at 22.9, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.4; if it breaks down below 22.8 with increased volume, the bullish structure will fail, and one should switch to short positions.
Key Interval Structure
1. Value Anchoring Zone: POC 24.85 (4.83 million USDT traded)
2. High Trading Volume Zone: 23.0-24.9 continuous HVN, serving as a price stay/retrace buffer zone
3. Low Trading Volume Gap: 25.3-26.1 area with sparse trading, once broken through, it will quickly traverse
4. 70% Trading Volume Coverage: 18.4-25.3, the current price 24.5 is at the upper edge, short-term mildly overbought
Momentum Verification
• 23.5-24.0 range Up Vol accounts for 58%, buyers slightly dominant
• 24.9-25.1 range Down Vol accounts for 56%, sellers hold the upper hand
• In the last 4 hours, contract positions decreased by 1.17%, buyers are actively reducing positions, increasing the probability of a short-term pullback
Bollinger Bands/MA Assistance
• Price is close to the 1h Bollinger upper band at 25.36, RSI 47, not extremely overbought
• MA200 at 20.74, deviation 18%, mid-term still strong, but short-term requires mean reversion
Order Book Anomalies
• 0.5% depth sell orders exceed 250,000 USDT, short-term pressure
• Large sell orders ranging from 29-36 USD, forming a distant liquidity ceiling
Market Cycle
In the medium-term, after breaking out on the weekly chart, it is now in a pullback phase, short-term oscillating between 23-26 USD. If it stabilizes at 25.3, it will restart the daily main rise; if it loses 22.8, it will return to the range.
Trading Strategy
Aggressive: Enter when a bullish engulfing pattern appears near 24.0 with Up Vol>60%, stop loss at 22.9 (-4.6%), target 26.0 (+8.3%), risk-reward ratio 1.8
Conservative: Re-enter when the 23.5-23.7 range shows increased volume and stops falling, same stop loss as above, target 26.0-27.2, risk-reward ratio 2.4
Cautious: Wait for a breakout above 25.3 and confirm with a pullback before going long, stop loss at 24.4, target 27.2
Risk Warning
• If key support 22.8-23.0 is lost, the bullish structure will be damaged
• Contract funding rate is only 0.01%, bullish cost is acceptable, but if the rate rises quickly, caution against a short squeeze is needed
• Macroeconomic risks or a significant BTC pullback will drag down ETC, strictly control position risk at 1%.
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