#AltcoinBreakout 【FOMO Alert】PENGU Battle of Long and Short near 0.03! Value Anchor POC unbroken, a pullback to LVN=0.0296 may lead to a short-term surge, risk-reward ratio 1:2.2, wait another week if missed?
Summary in one sentence: PENGU is consolidating above POC 0.0303, with a net outflow of 424 million in 24h contracts and 76.35 million in spot, selling pressure 1.56 times, but the price still holds above MA200 (0.0291) and the middle band of Bollinger (0.0309). If it breaks below LVN 0.0296 on increased volume, it will test 0.0271 HVN; conversely, if it stabilizes at POC, it can challenge 0.033 LVN, risk-reward ratio 1:2.2, position ≤1%, stop loss at 0.0289.
Key interval structure
1. Value Anchor: POC 0.03034 (2 billion transactions, Up/Down 1.15) — current price closely attached, regarded as the long bottom line.
2. High transaction volume area:
• HVN1 0.0313-0.0317 (130-170 million) — upper buffer, target 0.0335 after breakout.
• HVN2 0.0277-0.0281 (490 million) — first support below, can go long on pullback.
3. Low transaction volume gap:
• LVN1 0.0296-0.0300 (23.5 million) — if it breaks down with volume, bears will accelerate.
• LVN2 0.0330-0.0335 (71.4 million) — vacuum above, rapid increase after breakout.
4. 70% transaction area: 0.0136-0.0333, current price is at the upper edge, slightly overbought but not extreme.
Momentum validation
• Up Volume near POC 53.7%, neutral slightly bullish; LVN 0.0296 Down Volume only 40%, bearish momentum insufficient.
• The trading volume in the last 4h increased by 29.9M, but the price only +2.1%, there is suspicion of a false breakout, waiting for secondary confirmation.
Trading plan
Aggressive: Current price 0.0308-0.0309 pulling back to LVN 0.0296±0.0003 long, stop loss at 0.0289 (outside HVN2 -0.5ATR), target 0.0330, risk-reward ratio ≈2.2.
Conservative: Wait for 15m to close above POC 0.0303 and Up Volume >60% before chasing long, stop loss at 0.0295, target 0.0322.
Cautious: If it breaks below 0.0296 and with volume, short on pullback to 0.0300, stop loss at 0.0305, target 0.0277 HVN2, risk-reward ratio ≈2.0.
Risk warning
Contract OI increased by 2.7% in 24h but long-short ratio dropped to 1.36, leverage funds leaning bearish; spot has seen net outflow for 3 consecutive days, if a large order of over -100M hits again, the strategy will be invalidated. Avoid high volatility periods (UTC 14-16), position ≤1%.
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