【FOMO Alert】Is BCH about to break 530? The whales are quietly placing short positions, don't be lured into buying!
Summary in a sentence: BCH has risen 4% in 24 hours to 526, but contract positions have decreased by 5.8k, and the long/short ratio is rapidly declining, leading to a sudden increase in short-term selling pressure; 530-535 is a high-pressure zone, 480-485 is a golden retracement zone, aggressive traders should go short while going long, conservatives should wait for a breakout or breakdown confirmation, stop loss ±7, win-loss ratio ≈2.2, position ≤1%.
Key interval structure
1. Value anchor: POC 507.8 (300k contracts), currently 3.7% above, short-term bulls still hold an advantage.
2. High transaction zone: HVN 502.9-509.0 (260k contracts), forming a retracement buffer; HVN 513-517 (240k contracts) serves as resistance above.
3. Low transaction gap: LVN 468-481 (<15k contracts) fast crossing zone; above LVN 540-542 (<10k contracts) is a bear trap.
4. 70% transaction volume zone: 497.9-527.6, current price is close to the upper limit, short-term overbought.
Momentum and dominant direction
• Up Volume above POC is 55%, buying slightly dominates; however, Up Volume in the 530-535 range is only 46%, with sell orders active.
• Bollinger Bands: price is at the upper band at 72%, RSI 69, short-term divergence increasing.
• Contract positions: net outflow of 5.8k contracts in the past 24 hours, while price rose 3.96%, volume-price divergence → main force taking profits.
Market Cycle
The mid-term bullish channel remains intact (lows raised from 445→468→480), short-term entering the “rise after distribution” phase, watch for a false breakout at 535.
Trading Strategy
Aggressive: Place shorts at 530.5-532.5, stop loss at 537.5 (upper LVN +0.5×ATR ≈7), target 515 (next HVN), win-loss ratio ≈2.2.
Conservative: Go long on a retracement at 502-505, stop loss at 498 (lower HVN -0.5×ATR), target 520-525, win-loss ratio ≈2.5.
Cautious: Wait for a 1-hour close above 535 with increased volume (Up Volume >60%) to go long, or confirm distribution below 497 to follow the trend.
Risk Warning
• The sell wall at 530-590 has a volume exceeding 1.6 million USDT, a breakout requires sustained volume.
• If the 1-hour close falls below 497 (70% interval lower limit), the strategy fails, and take the opposite position.
• Avoid trading during US stock market open and macro data release periods to prevent liquidity gaps.
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