#AltcoinBreakout 🔥LTC rocket launch or in-flight refueling? Key decision at $113.5, wait another six months if missed!
LTC 24h explosive increase of 12.8%, price has reached the upper Bollinger band, position cost deviated by 14.9%, short-term selling pressure surging; a pullback to the high transaction volume area of $96–97 can be a good buying opportunity, stop loss below $94, looking at $108, risk-reward ratio 1.8; chasing highs is risky, please strictly adhere to position limits.
Key interval structure and transaction volume distribution
1. Value anchoring area: POC $96.37 (1.37 million transactions), heavy selling pressure above, dense buying below, a watershed for short-term bulls and bears.
2. High transaction volume area:
• $96–97 (HVN), the most sufficient turnover in the last two weeks, easy to get support on pullback;
• $108–109 (HVN), yesterday's main cost area for the bulls, target after breakthrough.
3. Low transaction volume gap:
• $89–90 (LVN), thin gap, if it breaks below $94 with volume, will quickly test this area;
• $114–115 (LVN), vacuum area above, once it breaks out with volume can surge straight to $118.
4. 70% transaction volume coverage area: $86.39–$112.19, current price $113.48 is at the upper edge of the range, short-term overbought.
Momentum verification
• POC area Up/Down Volume 45%:55%, bears slightly dominate;
• $108 area Up Volume 64%, bulls still control the market;
• Contract positions in the last 2 hours have slowed in growth, initial signs of divergence in price and volume.
Auxiliary judgment
• MA200 $97.96, deviation +15.8%, deviation is too large;
• RSI 80.6, extremely overbought;
• Sell orders/Buy orders = 2.04, significant selling pressure in the market.
Market cycle
Mid-term still in the third wave of rise, short-term entering the high-level consolidation end, waiting for pullback confirmation.
Trading strategy
Aggressive: Do not chase longs above $113.0, place buy orders in the $95.8–96.4 pullback range, stop loss at $94.0 (recent HVN lower edge at $95.5 -1.5×ATR), target $108.0, risk-reward ratio = 11.6/6.4 ≈ 1.8.
Conservative: Observe, wait for a Pin-bar + volume increase on the 15-minute level to re-enter at $96–97.
Cautious: If it breaks above $115 LVN with volume, can follow the trend to chase longs, stop loss at $113.2, target $118.5, risk-reward ratio = 3.5/1.8 ≈ 1.9.
Risk warning
• Losing the key stop loss level of $94 will open up a deep adjustment to $90;
• Continuous three-day net outflow of contract positions, if accelerated reduction occurs, will trigger a waterfall;
• Macroeconomic news or BTC volatility can easily lead to high fluctuations, ensure position ≤1%.
$LTC