BTC 24h slight decline -0.08%, current price 118047 is just above the two-week POC (118008) by 40 dollars; Contract OI has decreased for 5 days (-1.99%), funding rate is only 0.01%, both longs and shorts are retreating. If it falls below 117860 HVN, it will retrace to 116827, and the upper 119189 HVN is the first resistance. Conservative strategy: Rebound 117860-117930 LVN with volume to go long, stop loss 117565, target 119189, risk-reward ratio 2.1; if it falls below 117565 with volume, reverse to short, stop loss 117860, target 116827, risk-reward ratio 2.3. Note the August ETF options expiration and US stock earnings resonance, volatility may spike, be sure to maintain ≤1% position.
[Key Interval Structure]
1. Value Anchoring Area: POC 118008 (53.6k BTC traded), above it 23658 Up Vol vs 29906 Down Vol (44% buyers), slightly bearish.
2. Major HVN: 119189, 118599, 117417, 116827 — High probability of price stalling/retracing.
3. Major LVN: 117930-117860 (Low Trading Gap), 116827-116679 (Secondary Gap), Breakthrough/Retracement Acceleration Zone.
4. 70% Value Area: 107376-120075, current price is near the upper edge, slightly overbought in the short term.
[Momentum Validation]
• 117860-118156 Area Up Vol 44%, sellers dominate; if it returns above 44%, it is considered a bullish repair.
• 4h K-line continues to shrink in volume, OBV has not made new lows, waiting for volume confirmation of direction.
[Auxiliary Indicators]
• Bollinger Bands 1h middle line 118485, current price -0.37% deviation, positioned between middle and lower bands, biased towards bearish fluctuations.
• MA200 1h 118485, price slightly below, short-term weakness.
• OI 1h-24h continues to decline, both long and short positions are being slaughtered, lacking trend continuation strength.
[Trading Strategy]
A. Rebound to go long (Conservative)
Entry: 117860-117930 LVN appears with 5m long lower shadow or engulfing + Up Vol > 55%
Stop Loss: 117565 (Outside Lower HVN)
Target: 119189 (Upper HVN)
Risk-Reward Ratio: 119189-117860 = 1329; Risk 117860-117565 = 295; 1329/295 ≈ 2.1
B. Breakout to go short (Aggressive)
Entry: 1h close below 117565 and Down Vol > 60%
Stop Loss: 117860 (Reverse HVN)
Target: 116827
Risk-Reward Ratio: 117565-116827 = 738; Risk 117860-117565 = 295; 738/295 ≈ 2.3
[Risk Warning]
• Macro: The Federal Reserve's July interest rate decision is approaching, fluctuations in the dollar and US Treasury yields will amplify volatility.
• On-chain: ahr999 2.49 at the upper edge of the 'DCA Area', still healthy in the long run, but short-term retracement depth is uncontrollable.
• Strategy Invalid: If 1h entity closes above 118600 with volume, bearish structure is broken, should decisively stop loss and reverse.
• Execution: Avoid UTC+0 16:00 funding rate settlement and 30 minutes before US stock market opening to prevent spikes.
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