TON breaks key level at 3.20, 24h contract reduction of 2.73%, spot net outflow of 431k; short-term oscillation between value anchor 2.99 and LVN 3.26, aggressive traders can buy the bounce at 3.10-3.12, stop loss at 3.05, target 3.26 (risk-reward ratio ≈ 3.2), if it breaks below 2.99, short to 2.87, position ≤ 1%.
Key interval structure
• POC (value anchor) 2.99: 2-week highest transaction 47.4M, Up/Down 58/42, slight buying dominance.
• Main HVN: 2.90, 2.95, 3.00, forming an upper buffer zone, prone to pullbacks.
• Main LVN: 3.26-3.31 (low volume gap), 2.72-2.73 (lower vacuum zone), high probability of price crossing quickly.
• 70% trading volume zone 2.80-3.04, current price 3.20 has exited this zone by 1.1×ATR, short-term mean reversion demand exists.
Momentum verification and dominant direction
• 1h Bollinger Bands lower limit 3.13, RSI 29, oversold resonance; MA200 3.07, deviation 3.9%, excessive deviation.
• Contract 1-24h continuous reduction, long-short ratio changed from 4.09 to 4.07, bulls have not shown panic liquidation, downtrend is slowing.
• Spot 1d net outflow 431k, much smaller than contract reduction, limited selling pressure in the spot market.
Order book anomaly
• The buy-sell ratio on the order book is 1.02, indicating surface balance, but near-end sell orders exceed by 97k, short-term pressure at 3.26.
• Far-end buy orders are stacked at 2.85-3.13, providing support for pullbacks.
Market cycle judgment
Currently in a daily rebound failure phase within a weekly downtrend channel, short-term entering a 'value regression' window.
Trading strategy
A. Aggressive rebound (short-term)
Entry: 3.10-3.12 (pullback to upper edge of LVN)
Stop loss: 3.05 (below HVN 2.99 plus 0.5ATR≈0.05)
Target: 3.26 (next lower edge of LVN)
Risk-reward ratio: (3.26-3.11)/(3.11-3.05)=2.5
B. Trend-following short (breakout)
Trigger: 1h close below 2.99
Entry: 2.98
Stop loss: 3.05 (pullback to HVN)
Target: 2.87 (below HVN 2.90 plus)
Risk-reward ratio: (2.98-2.87)/(3.05-2.98)=1.6
Risk control reminder
• Key failure: Price breaks down with volume below 2.94 (lower edge of POC), or Up Volume falls below 40%.
• Event risk: Macro liquidity changes, major news from the TON ecosystem.
• Position: Single risk ≤ 1% of account, avoid high volatility periods 1h before and after US CPI announcement.
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