#CryptoMarket4T
【ETH Midnight Raid】$3544 Suspended! Long and Short Only One Line, Wait Until March if Missed This Wave?
Summary: ETH current price $3544, stuck between the middle band of the Bollinger Bands and the upper edge of the 70% value area, with slight short-term buying pressure; if it breaks 3559, it will directly rush to 3600, if it loses 3528, it will fall back to 2968 POC. Strategy: Buy on the pullback to 3528±3, stop loss at 3510, target 3600/3650, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.7; if it breaks below 3510, reverse to short, stop loss at 3530, target 3480. Risk: Continuous 24h decrease in contract OI of 1.84%, long positions reduced, beware of false breakouts.
Key Interval Structure
1. Value Anchor (POC): 2968, maximum transaction in 2 weeks, rebounding likely upon pullback to this level.
2. High Volume Node (HVN): 3559-3568 (current top resistance), 2968-3008 (long positions' fortress).
3. Low Volume Node (LVN): 3528-3535 (vacuum below, acceleration if broken), 3304-3312 (true vacuum zone).
4. 70% Coverage Area: 2439-3625; currently at the 97% percentile, slightly overbought.
Momentum Verification
• 3559-3568: Down Volume accounts for 60%, selling orders are active.
• 3528-3535: Up Volume accounts for 65%, buying orders are lurking.
• Recent 1h candlestick volume is below the average of 20, waiting for volume confirmation.
Auxiliary Indicators
• MA200: 3183, deviation of 11%, still bullish in the medium term.
• Bollinger Bands 1h: upper band at 3596, lower band at 3517, price is at 33%, neutral bias.
• OI Change: In the past 24h, long positions reduced by 4.86%, short positions slightly increased, beware of long position liquidation.
Market Cycle
The large scale is still in the mid-bull market, short-term entering the “high position consolidation—then choose a direction” phase.
Trading Strategy
Aggressive Long: Limit price at 3528, stop loss at 3510 (-0.5ATR), target 3600/3650, risk-reward ratio 2.7.
Conservative Long: Wait for 1h close to return to 3550 and Up Volume > 60% before chasing long, stop loss at 3535, target 3620.
Reverse to Short: Break below 3510 and increase volume, short to 3480/3450, stop loss at 3530, risk-reward ratio 1.9.
Risk Control
• Single trade risk ≤ 1% of account.
• Key Failure: Immediate stop loss if 3510 is lost or 3559 breaks out with volume failure.
• Avoid the hour before and after the opening of the US stock market tomorrow, liquidity gaps can easily amplify slippage.
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