After several days, Old Chen looked at the market for the first time. From the current market perspective, Bitcoin has stabilized around 107,000 since the beginning of the month, initiating a strong upward breakout, reaching a new high of 123,300 before falling back into a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Ethereum has risen from around 2,400 to a high of 3,674 and has since retreated, showing strong momentum for a rebound.
From the daily K-line perspective, Bitcoin has broken out of a wide fluctuation pattern. When facing a direction choice, it has shown a strong upward trend, accompanied by continual new highs. However, the momentum is gradually weakening, and experiencing a short-term tug-of-war is an inevitable process. At the same time, the main force's operational exchange rate is cyclical, and the duration will not be too short. Currently, the key points of contention are concentrated at the upper level of 125,000 and the lower level of 115,000.
The activity on the Ethereum chain already indicates that Bitcoin is driving the market, and Ethereum will inevitably see a rebound. Moreover, it is still in the first round of rebound, and after returning above 3,000, there will be a second round of rebound, the so-called stable three looking to five.
After breaking through the high on the four-hour line, it will return to a normal fluctuation pattern. In the short term, there will be a noticeable contraction process, but Old Chen is not optimistic about the sustainability of Bitcoin's direction choice in the short term. The selling pressure after breaking the high will continue to hold back momentum, but the buying pressure above 110,000 will provide strong support.
Regarding layout: After breaking the high, short-term operations are not so easy, and cyclical layouts will show better cost-effectiveness.
Key cyclical points:
Bitcoin: 125,000-115,000-110,000
Ethereum: 4,000-3,500-3,000
Short-term layout suggestions:
Enter long positions at low prices. Currently, positions can be entered below 118,000 for Bitcoin (aggressive traders can enter directly around this level), targeting 120,000. If unable to effectively break through, reverse to short with a target of 117,200.
Ethereum rebound, primarily long positions, enter in the 3,550-3,500 range, looking for a new high near 3,700, and if broken, target 4,000. $ETH
