The recent price surge has pushed Dogecoin's price above the critical psychological level of $0.23, raising the spot price to about $0.236 at the time of writing and extending the weekly gain to over 20%. The breakout occurs while Bitcoin continues to consolidate near the $120,000 level, a level that many market technical analysts consider pivotal for the entire altcoin system.

Technical strategist Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) has published the daily DOGE/USD chart on X. In it, Dogecoin's price action is framed by a multi-month downtrend line, which was broken for the first time last November. Since that breakout, the price has returned to the diagonal three separate times—each touch marked in orange by Kevin, signaling what he describes as "typical behavior after a breakout."

"It's only a matter of time before #Dogecoin returns to the .28-.30 range and then goes even further," he wrote. "As long as BTC holds strong and continues to show strength, this will come soon."

Dogecoin Price Target

Kevin's roadmap is built around a dense cluster of Fibonacci retracement levels dominating the right edge of the chart. The immediate resistance lies at the 0.618 and 0.65 retracement levels - approximately $0.261 and $0.285, respectively - followed by 0.703 at $0.329 and the 0.786 level at $0.413.

Further down, the 0.5 retracement level at $0.190 has served as a support threshold throughout July, while the 0.382 level at $0.138 marks the final defensive line for medium-term bulls.

In addition to the classic retracement grid, Kevin predicts a trio of strong Fibonacci extension levels—1.618 ($3.97), 1.65 ($4.33), and 1.703 ($5.00)—suggesting that the "thin air" zone of Dogecoin at the peak of the previous cycle could allow for a parabolic breakout if liquidity conditions reflect the situation of 2021.

However, he emphasizes that such targets "still depend on Bitcoin surpassing the $120,000 - $123,000 range and ideally soaring to $140,000 - $150,000, when supply costs significantly decrease."

“Everyone has forgotten that #BTC is leading this market, and if BTC drops, everything will collapse. ... BTC needs to surpass the $123,274 mark - an extremely critical timeframe. I don't like oscillating at this level for too long.”

Currently, Bitcoin dropping below the all-time high has dampened altcoin excitement. The macro picture is further complicated by the fact that, as Kevin noted, "BTC, Total 2, ETH, and many other altcoins are at major resistance levels—so don't try to be a hero here. If you missed the lows, that's unfortunate, but don't FOMO at significant resistance."

If Bitcoin makes the breakout the analysis community is expecting, the DOGE/BTC pair could accelerate significantly, validating Kevin's view that memecoins are "catching up" and may be ready for a superior percentage move as the overall market trend continues.

Dogecoin is currently hovering around the 0.618–0.65 resistance level, with traders awaiting a daily close above $0.285 to confirm the next upward momentum. Conversely, failing to hold the wedge peak near $0.19 will delay the bullish trend and make the retest area after the breakout vulnerable.