The meme coin market is witnessing a strong recovery, thanks to a widespread growth wave in the cryptocurrency market. The total market cap of the meme coin segment has reached a 30-day peak with an impressive figure of $85.28 billion – the highest in the past month.
In this bullish wave, Dogecoin (DOGE) – the largest meme coin by market capitalization – has become the focus with the strongest increase among the top 5 meme coins. The price of DOGE has risen 32% in the past 7 days, currently trading around $0.2743 (as of the time of writing).
Liveliness Increase – Sell Signal from Long-term Investors
Despite DOGE's strong upward price trend, on-chain data shows a notable signal: the Liveliness index is increasing – an indication that long-term holders (LTH) are moving or selling the DOGE they have held for a long time.
Specifically, according to data from Glassnode, DOGE's Liveliness index rose to 0.706 on July 20, an increase of 0.14% since July 13.
Liveliness is calculated as the ratio of 'destroyed' holding days (coin days destroyed) to total accumulated days. When this index decreases, it is a sign of accumulation, meaning holders are continuing to keep the asset in cold wallets without selling. Conversely, when it increases, it is often a sign of profit-taking or exit from long-term investors.
Strong Price Increase Thanks to Short-term Investor Momentum
Notably, even with selling pressure from LTHs, DOGE's price continues to maintain a strong upward trend with no clear signs of reversal. This indicates that it is the short-term investors – often referred to as 'paper hands' – who are leading this rally, capitalizing on the strong momentum from the entire market.
The Aroon Up indicator – a technical analysis tool that measures the strength and direction of a trend – is currently at 100% for DOGE. When this index hits 100%, it indicates that the asset's price is continuously making new highs, a clear signal of a sustainable growth trend.
DOGE has now returned to the price range previously established in February 2025, further supporting the argument that the current bullish trend has strength and stability.
Ascending Channel Pattern – Is DOGE Heading Towards $0.33?
Observing the daily technical chart, DOGE is moving within an ascending parallel channel – this pattern forms when the price oscillates between two upward-sloping parallel trend lines.
This pattern shows a stable upward trend, with higher highs and higher lows over time. As long as the price remains within this channel, the bullish trend is considered maintained.
Currently, DOGE is testing the resistance area around $0.28. If buying pressure remains strong, DOGE **could surpass this area and move towards the next target of $0.33 – a price not seen since the beginning of the year.
Conclusion
The rise of Dogecoin in the context of a strong recovery in the meme coin market has attracted attention from both short-term investors and technical traders. Although there are signs of profit-taking from long-term holders, the current buying pressure from the community is still sufficient to sustain the bullish trend.
If DOGE continues to stay within the ascending channel and convincingly breaks through the $0.28 level, the target of $0.33 is entirely feasible in the short term. However, investors should also note: if the Liveliness index continues to rise sharply, selling pressure from old holders could threaten the current positive trend.
→ The question arises: Is Dogecoin breaking out due to short-term FOMO, or is this the beginning of a new long-term growth cycle? Let’s wait and observe the next signals from both the market and on-chain data.