On the macro level, Federal Reserve Governor Waller advocates for a 25 basis point rate cut at the July meeting, believing this would provide room to maintain rates at future meetings. However, this view has not been widely accepted, as Fed official Mary Daly has clearly opposed premature rate cuts, asserting that there should be two rate cuts in 2025, which aligns with the statements of most Fed officials. Additionally, Trump's recent attacks on the Fed and Powell have diminished, but his selection of Powell's successor remains a focal point of interest for players.
On the macroeconomic front, U.S. economic data presents a robust trend. Following the release of CPI and PPI data, the latest retail data remains strong. While some argue that tariff expectations may be one of the factors driving steady consumer spending, the data itself is sufficient to indicate that the U.S. economy is currently in a healthy state. However, to see 'dehydrated data' that excludes short-term influences, one may have to wait until after September.
Recently, Ethereum's price has performed particularly well. Driven by news of BlackRock and Nasdaq jointly submitting an ETH spot ETF staking application to the SEC, the ETH price has reached $3,673. Although the final approval date for this application is set for April 2026, the market generally expects approval as early as the fourth quarter of 2025. Meanwhile, Ethereum's market capitalization has risen to $432 billion, surpassing the U.S. supermarket Costco, and climbing to 30th place in the global asset market capitalization ranking, injecting confidence into the crypto market.
Within the crypto market, the performance of different coins is diverging. Among the four meme coins, including DOGE and PEPE, the platform balance decreased when PEPE and BONK rose in price, with a noticeable drop in BONK on July 8; conversely, the platform balance increased when DOGE and FLOKI rose in price, indicating a reduction in low-cost DOGE chips, while BONK broke through its chip zone with low-position chips showing no change.
On-chain data indicates that the current turnover rate has decreased, but it remains at a high level, suggesting strong speculative sentiment among players. Short-term players are the main force exiting the market, especially those with a holding cost exceeding $100,000. A higher turnover rate also increases the upward pressure on Bitcoin prices to some extent.
According to URPD data, the range of $103,500 to $108,500 serves as the first strong support level, while the range of $93,500 to $98,500 is the second strong support level. As long as no significant negative news arises, it will be difficult to break through the first support level.
Overall, from July 14 to 16, Bitcoin showed significant strong demand signals, with funds entering the market even during declines. Players who had previously waited for lower points began to actively position themselves. The impact of whales selling off in the OTC market is relatively small; even if a pullback occurs, the short-term amplitude is unlikely to reach deep levels, and market absorption capacity has quietly strengthened. Bitcoin is still in a phase of oscillation and adjustment, and it is highly likely to resume an upward trend after the adjustment ends, with some strong altcoins still holding opportunities. #比特币走势分析
