From a macro perspective, according to the CME 'Federal Reserve Watch' data, the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged in July is as high as 95.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is only 4.7%; the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged in September has dropped to 32%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 64.9%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point cut is 3.1%. However, the recent focus of the financial market has been drawn to a 'farce' triggered by Trump.
In the United States, the financial market and policy sector have recently experienced a series of 'plot twists', from the rumors of 'firing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell' from Trump's team causing volatility, to cryptocurrency-related bills advancing in the House, and the stablecoin bill entering the critical voting stage, a series of events are continuously affecting market expectations.
Initially, as the PPI data improved and the market sentiment warmed up, news suddenly emerged from the White House that 'Trump plans to fire Powell', with even details suggesting that 'dismissal instructions have been drafted', causing market fluctuations — some players believe the rumors are credible. Although the Federal Reserve Chairman can be dismissed legally, there has never been a precedent in U.S. history, and the conditions for dismissal are extremely strict. However, the rumor's description of 'sufficient details' still leads the market to speculate 'whether there are undisclosed handles'.
This farce quickly turned around. Trump clearly stated in an interview that he holds an 'extremely conservative' attitude towards firing Powell, and unless Powell engages in misconduct, he will not initiate dismissal procedures. He also revealed that if the Federal Reserve Chairman is replaced, it will happen 8 months later (when Powell's term ends), mentioning that White House senior advisor Hassett is a potential candidate, directly denying the authenticity of the 'dismissal rumors'. As a result, the market's short-term fluctuations caused by the rumors gradually stabilized.
Another focus at the policy level is the previously rejected packaging bill, which has passed key procedural voting in a re-vote and is now entering the formal debate and voting stage. The cryptocurrency bill has also passed the second procedural hurdle in the House of Representatives, and the final voting and sequential voting on four key bills will follow. If passed, the bill will be sent to the Senate for review.
It is worth noting the progress of the stablecoin bill: the bill has passed in the Senate, and if the House of Representatives directly uses the Senate version without any modifications, it will be submitted directly to the President for signing; if the House proposes amendments, a unified version must be coordinated and voted on again. Trump recently stated, 'The stablecoin bill will pass tomorrow, I have communicated with all opponents', releasing a positive signal for the bill's passage. In addition, the proposal initiated by the WLFI community to 'open WLFI token free trading' has passed with overwhelming support, becoming an important dynamic in the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
On-chain data shows that the current range of $103,500-$108,500 is the area with the most concentrated chips, forming a short-term effective support, but whether it can form a solid support still needs observation; while there is a URPD gap in the $112,000-$114,000 range — based on historical data, the probability of filling this type of gap is 100%, but the timing is still uncertain.
Overall, Bitcoin is still in a phase of short-term volatility and adjustment, while in the long term it is expected to hit new highs after the adjustment. In the last 30 days, Bitcoin attracted the most funds, but its price has risen the slowest. Meme coins and Ethereum, although attracting less capital, have surged astonishingly. Currently, the short-term moving average of altcoin market capitalization has exceeded the long-term moving average, which is usually a signal that the market is about to improve. However, there is only so much capital in the market, and most of it has been taken by Bitcoin and Ethereum. Whether the remaining funds can make all altcoins rise is still uncertain. But it can be confirmed that some strong altcoins will emerge. This phase is the time window to position for bull market potential coins.
