Ethereum has recently shown strong performance, with prices soaring to $3,600, a 43% increase over the past 30 days and a 7.55% rise in the last 24 hours. Crypto hedge fund ZX Squared Capital partner Felix Xu believes that 'hard data' indicates that Ethereum is unlikely to see a pullback in the near term.

Two key factors support the rise

Continued inflow of ETF funds: The inflow of funds into the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF has been steadily increasing, with a single-day inflow of $727 million on Wednesday, setting a record for the highest single-day inflow since the ETF started trading in July 2024. Felix Xu pointed out that these inflowed tokens enter cold storage, making them unavailable for immediate resale, thus providing support for the price.

Fed policy uncertainty brings positive factors: Although the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose slightly in June, the macro environment remains mixed. U.S. President Trump continues to pressure Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to lower interest rates by as much as three percentage points, leading the market to realize that policy risks are still tilted towards dovish for risk assets, which is beneficial for cryptocurrencies like Ethereum.

Felix Xu stated that the likelihood of a 30% overall correction like that seen in October 2024 is very low unless ETF inflows suddenly halt and the Federal Reserve simultaneously shifts significantly to a hawkish stance.

Will it be able to hit $10,000 by the end of the year?

Opinions within the industry are cautious regarding whether Ethereum can reach $10,000 by the end of the year. Felix Xu believes that this goal implies a 190% increase within just over five months, which is quite challenging, as similar increases have only been achieved during the 2017 ICO boom and the 2020-21 DeFi boom.

However, he also mentioned that the possibility still exists if a series of conditions are met, including: continued strong inflow of ETF funds, increased staking within ETFs, heightened risk appetite among investors, and broader applications of the Ethereum network (such as re-staking, development of Layer-2 Rollups, and new vertical applications locking up more ETH tightening supply, etc.). If these factors work together, a surge to $10,000 cannot be ruled out; but if any one factor 'loses momentum', the rise could fall far below that level.

Trevor Koverko, co-founder of Sapien, shares a similar view, believing that while $10,000 is speculative, it is not entirely impossible. If the macro environment remains favorable, ETF adoption expands further, and Ethereum continues to transition to 'the next pillar of the financial system', its valuation is expected to approach that level. He also noted that ETH today is less of a speculative bet compared to the past.

Previously, cryptocurrency trader Mikybull Crypto predicted that the price of Ethereum might range between $7,000 and $10,000 based on the RSI index.