At 2 AM this morning, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting will be released, and this key moment cannot be underestimated in its impact on the cryptocurrency market.
From a liquidity perspective: If hawkish signals are released, such as raising interest rates or tightening measures like balance sheet reduction, funds may be withdrawn from the cryptocurrency market, causing prices to potentially come under pressure; if a dovish tendency is shown, choosing to lower interest rates or maintain a loose monetary policy, new funds are expected to flow into the market, possibly pushing prices higher.
Looking at the sentiment aspect: If unexpectedly hawkish statements emerge, it may trigger panic selling; while dovish signals could ignite optimistic sentiment in the market, leading to price increases driven by sentiment.
From a macroeconomic perspective: If loose policies are adopted due to economic concerns, under inflation expectations, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin may be viewed as inflation hedges, increasing demand and supporting prices; if tightening is chosen when the economy improves, traditional financial markets will attract more funds, leading to a diversion of funds from the cryptocurrency market, cooling down the market.
With the release of the meeting minutes tonight, volatility in the cryptocurrency market is likely to intensify, and investors need to closely monitor policy signals and prepare response strategies in advance.
From the hourly level, the Bollinger Bands are synchronously converging, indicating that the recent volatility of Dian Wei's market is continuously narrowing, and the market is currently in a phase of rebalancing forces. Dian Wei is under pressure from the upper Bollinger Band and has returned to the vicinity of the middle band; this process not only reflects the suppression of the short-term volatility by the upper band but also shows that the support from the middle band is beginning to emerge.
However, attention should be paid to the news from the meeting at two o'clock in the morning. In the short term, pay attention to the 109200 position.
The big cake can be arranged in the 109700-110400 range. The target can be seen in the 107200-105100 range.
The second cake can be arranged in the 2700-2725 range. The target can be seen in the 2540-2500 range.
The market is at a critical juncture, either soaring to new heights or undergoing a significant adjustment.
Currently, Bitcoin and Ethereum have been consolidating at high levels for 2 months, with volatility dropping to extremely low levels, while liquidity has accumulated significantly. Both bulls and bears are waiting for a clear directional breakout.
Two scenarios may emerge: Strong breakout, initiating a new uptrend, resulting in heavy losses for bears. Rapid decline triggering liquidations, with a significant number of long positions being closed, leading to a sharp price correction.
It is important to note that the longer the consolidation lasts, the more intense the subsequent volatility may be, so be prepared for rising volatility. Do not blindly speculate on direction; wait until the market clearly chooses a direction before taking action.
My view is: "Is the bull market back? Regardless of whether it rises or falls, (remain on the sidelines, and refrain from making hasty bullish or bearish judgments until a breakout or breakdown at key levels occurs.)"
Today, I will share 4 trading entry logic strategies. They are based on the same market structure but dissected from different perspectives, hoping to provide practical inspiration:
1. Trendline Game: Anchoring Bullish Rhythm When the trendline remains intact (i.e., the bullish rhythm is not broken), when the price retraces to the trendline, it can synchronize with the trend value to enter the game, betting on the continuation of the trend.
2. Horizontal Support Second Confirmation: Capturing Bull-Bear Balance Zone Consider the horizontal support level where the market reverses as the balance point of bull and bear forces. When the price retraces to this position and confirms that the support is effective (such as forming a stop-loss candlestick), it presents a second entry opportunity, betting on a rebound within the range.
3. Fibonacci Adjustment: Betting on Golden Ratio Inertia Utilizing the probability of 'pullback after an increase', when the price retraces to the Fibonacci 0.618 golden ratio level, if a stop-loss signal appears (such as engulfing, hammer, etc., which directly reflects the bull-bear mentality), one can bet on a rebound based on inertia, which is essentially a probability game.
4. Multi-Signal Focus: Capturing Probability Peaks When clues such as trendlines, horizontal lines, and candlestick patterns overlap at the same position, this place approaches a 'probability peak'. Under the resonance of multiple signals, the entry success rate is relatively higher. Key Reminder: There is no absolute right or wrong in these 4 types of logic; the core is to match your perspective of observing the market—some focus on trends, some guard supports, and others trust Fibonacci. Finding a suitable 'signal anchor' for yourself is essential to fully utilize trading logic.
September 7 Evening Big Pie Auntie Market Analysis
In the afternoon session, the intraday market fell into a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. The bulls attempted to break through the highs multiple times, but were suppressed back by the bears. The big pie is currently around 108900, while Auntie shows a steady upward trend.
From the candlestick chart, a 📉 divergence appears on the 4-hour chart, accompanied by a bullish crossover trend with increased volume on the 1-hour chart, indicating that both the big pie and Auntie are in an upward trend.
The big pie can be positioned for long orders around 108200 - 106900, with a target of 110800 - 111200.
Auntie can be positioned for long orders around 2580 - 2620, with a target of 2650 - 2700.
Grasping buying and selling opportunities in the crypto world, the core is to thoroughly understand this set of practical strategies:
Technical analysis is the weapon, emotional analysis is the ammunition, and fundamentals are the battlefield—only the combination of the three can lead to precise strikes.
Watch the indicators: like an old hunter tracking footprints.
Don't rush to act when moving averages are intertwined; the market is likely preparing a big move. Only when the 5-day moving average firmly stands above the 20-day moving average (golden cross) is it a signal worth pulling the trigger. When MACD shows a golden cross, don’t act impulsively; wait for the second bullish candle to confirm before entering, just like waiting for the other party to release a clear signal before stepping forward, which is much more prudent.
Recognize key levels: beware of the trap of "history repeating itself."
Support and resistance levels are the collective memory of the market, but "history may repeat itself, but it never simply replicates":
• BTC stabilized at 25,000 three times; the fourth time might be the beginning of a breakdown;
• ETH has encountered resistance at 2000 points multiple times; breaking through for the third time often hides opportunities for violent surges.
Read emotions: closely monitor the "electrocardiogram" of retail investors.
The fear and greed index is a mirror:
• When dance grannies are talking about SHIB, the exchange app crashes, and "this time is different" becomes a catchphrase—it's time to leave;
• When the community is quiet, analysts are silent, and retail investors are cutting losses to exit, it’s the right time to pick up bloodied chips.
Use news: look at it from the opposite perspective to be clearer.
Good news can often turn into bad news, while excessive bad news can turn into good news. Laying out a month before an ETH upgrade and exiting on the upgrade day is a strategy repeatedly validated by the market; new coins listed on exchanges and lively openings do not guarantee longevity; it's more reliable to reassess three months later.
Maintain discipline: the iron rule more important than technology.
• Buy like a turtle peeking out: build positions in batches, always keep spare funds available;
• Sell like a decisive pivot: leave when it’s time to go, don’t wait for "having a change of heart";
• Stop-loss like an appendectomy: hesitation will only turn small problems into fatal wounds;
• Take profit like a buffet: leave when you’re full, don’t be greedy for the last bite.
In a bull market, technical indicators may fail, and in a bear market, support levels often lose effectiveness. The real ace up your sleeve is: quietly building positions when no one cares, and quietly exiting when the crowd is noisy. The market always rewards contrarians and punishes followers.
Remember: in the crypto world, choosing the right direction is more important than just working hard. Following the right rhythm will naturally lead to profits. #币圈
Looking back is just getting on the ride, it seems that there are more than just one buddy who has caught a free ride. Bringing one is bringing, bringing two is also bringing.
Recently, BTC's performance at the 107,000 mark has been quite intriguing, primarily due to the emergence of the phenomenon of 'not clearing when it should'.
Yesterday, BTC attempted to test the critical support level of 107,000 twice, clearly aiming to trigger the accumulated long leverage below and profit from it. However, the result was that both attempts failed, and the support at 107,000 appeared to be quite strong.
Who is supporting the price to prevent it from falling? Indications suggest that it is the futures players. There are two pieces of evidence: first, the decline in spot premium indicates a relative weakening of spot demand; second, the rise in funding rates shows that investors playing long on contracts are willing to pay higher 'fees' to shorts in order to maintain the price above 107,000. They are the current main force supporting the market.
What does 'not clearing when it should' mean? Simply put, the market is currently not in a hurry to crash down and has no intention of immediately liquidating the long positions below. There could be two reasons behind this: either the potential profit from the long positions waiting to be liquidated below is 'not enough' and lacks sufficient attraction, making it not worth the effort to crash the market now; or the short positions waiting to be triggered above are in better positions with more considerable profits, leading the main force to prefer pushing up to liquidate those high-position short investors.
When to turn bearish? We'll have to wait for a confirmation of breaking below 107,000. If one day the closing price is below 107,000, it indicates that the support force has exhausted, and long positions below may start to be liquidated, at which point the target could be set towards 105,800.
What kind of trend do I hope for more? I hope that in July the price can surge upwards, aiming to break through the short positions waiting below 113,000 and clear out the high-position shorts. If successful, it is likely to initiate a new wave of upward trends.
The core logic remains unchanged: the first step is to see whether the price makes a new high or a new low; the second step is to judge where the 'profit space' is the largest and most attractive; the third step is that the candlestick patterns are only for auxiliary reference and not critical.#BTC走势分析
As I expected, the big pie's attempt to surge failed, continuing to retreat and adjust throughout the day,
The support below is still seen in the range of 107800 - 106700, if it gives a pullback, it would be a very good entry point for long positions, shorting during the day requires caution, as the lower space is difficult to grasp, so as to avoid wasting time and effort in vain. Operational thoughts: The big pie can layout long positions near 107800 - 106700, target 109200 - 110600
Auntie can layout long positions near 2560-2570, target 2600-2620 #BTC走势分析 #eth
As an 'old investor' who entered the crypto world in 2017, I am often asked: Can one still enter the crypto world now? Is there still an opportunity? Today, I will share the current state of the crypto world in 2025 and how to respond with the most practical words. 1. The crypto world can still be participated in, but the era of 'blindly getting rich' is over. The conclusion is clear: There are still opportunities in the crypto world, but it is no longer an era where everyone can easily make money; instead, we have entered the 'differentiation era.' In simple terms, the gap between those who can make money and those who cannot is becoming increasingly obvious. The days of casually buying Shiba, APE, or Dogecoin and seeing several times returns are basically gone. Now, making a profit in the crypto world relies on information asymmetry, clear strategies, and strong execution.
If you are consistently losing in futures trading and want to turn it around, you must carefully read this practical guide. By doing the following points, your probability of making a profit will greatly increase:
One, do a good job of taking profits and cutting losses.
Market changes very quickly; taking profits and cutting losses is a must.
• Taking profits can help you control greed: the rise and fall of any cryptocurrency has cycles; it won't keep rising or falling indefinitely. Don't get hung up on closing positions too early and missing out on subsequent profits; remember that there is always money to be made in the crypto world, but your account balance can be wiped out.
• Cutting losses means abandoning sunk costs: don't always think about holding on for a reversal; if you're wrong, you need to acknowledge it. Cutting losses may feel painful like 'cutting off a limb,' but it can preserve your capital and leave you with a chance to recover.
Darlings, the drastic fluctuations in the crypto world are truly love-hate; how many people have thinned their hair because of it? 😭 Today, let's talk about my insights from doing quantitative trading during this time, and see how to 'prevent balding' with quantitative trading and steadily make some money in the crypto world! 📊Quantitative trading, say goodbye to 'balding' operations Quantitative trading analyzes the market and executes trades using mathematical models and algorithms. Its greatest advantage is—no emotional reliance, only data observation. In the highly volatile crypto market, emotional trading is most likely to lead to the roller coaster of 'getting rich overnight' and 'returning to poverty overnight', while quantitative trading helps stabilize your mindset and avoid making impulsive errors.
Last night, Bitcoin formed a small V shape, with the drop and rebound nearly equal in magnitude. The fluctuations are unpredictable under the control of the old players. On the daily chart, the market shows a rising trend after multiple tests of support, with the support level gradually moving up, and the bullish momentum taking control once again. The analysis from last night mentioned that if the price stays above 108900, an upward trend is expected. Currently, Bitcoin has stabilized above 108900, and further bullish movements are worth looking forward to.
Bitcoin has moved away from the lower Bollinger Band support, extending upwards towards the upper band, and closing with a bullish hammer candlestick. The technical aspect indicates the presence of upward momentum, but caution is needed for the risk of retreat after reaching new highs. The preferred strategy is to buy at lower levels.
Trading Suggestions
• Bitcoin can be positioned long near 108400 - 108800, with a target of 109500 - 110000
• Ethereum can be positioned long near 2595 - 2605, with a target of 2650 - 2660
There is no Holy Grail in trading; there are no secrets in the market
I once thought trading was a shortcut to wealth, but later I realized it is more like a long game of self-reflection. Here, there are no eternal winners, only practitioners who are constantly evolving.
Over the years, the market has taught me not only technical skills but also a profound understanding of human nature, risk, and discipline. From blindly following trends to establishing my own system, from emotional trading to mechanical execution, every step of growth has been extremely painful and costly. What I want to share is not a 'secret,' but the genuine insights of someone who has been there.
【There is no 'Holy Grail' in trading, and there are no 'secrets' in the market】
Reviewing the evening trend, Bitcoin rose to the 109200 position but encountered resistance, subsequently falling back to around 108400.
From the hourly chart perspective, the Bollinger Bands (BOLL) are synchronously narrowing, indicating that the recent market volatility is continuously decreasing, and both bulls and bears are in a phase of rebalancing their forces. The price has dropped from the upper band under pressure to near the middle band, reflecting both the upper band's suppression of short-term bulls and the initial support effect now evident at the middle band.
Operating Suggestions:
• Bitcoin can set up short positions in the 109000-109800 range, targeting the 107400-106600 range.
• Aunt's coin can set up short positions in the 2600-2650 range, targeting the 2540-2500 range.