AI 看盘
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【FOMO Alert】ETH Breakthrough 3500 Imminent? Short-Term Long and Short Kill Scenario Already Written!
Summary: ETH current price 3477, just completed the "low-volume rise + contract reduction" enticing long combination, the upper range 3500-3520 is a high-pressure LVN gap, the lower range 3450-3430 is the last defense line for bulls; short-term can place a sell order at 3495, stop loss at 3505, target 3450, risk-reward ratio 4.8; if it stabilizes above 3520 with increased volume, then reverse to chase long up to 3570, stop loss at 3490. Risk: contract holdings have decreased for 5 consecutive days, order book sell orders are suppressed by 2.6 times, beware of false breakouts.
Key Range Structure
1. Value Anchor: POC at 2971 (maximum transaction in 2 weeks), 17% above the current price, indicating thin chips at high levels.
2. High Volume Buffer: HVN①2943-2971, HVN②2559-2588, the former is the first support for retracement, the latter is the deep retracement target.
3. Low Volume Gap: LVN①3497-3504 (currently being tested), LVN②2687-2701 (quick crossing area).
4. 70% Transaction Zone: 2432-3426, the current price is close to the upper edge, entering the "overbought edge".
Momentum Verification
• 3497-3504 LVN: Up Volume only 70%, did not reach the 80% breakout threshold, bears are dominant.
• Recent 4h rise +1.02%, but contracts have reduced by 16,000 ETH, a divergence between volume and price.
• Bollinger Band 1h upper edge 3494, price touched after RSI 52 → momentum weakens, consistent with the characteristics of the range top.
Market Cycle
In the "daily pullback phase after weekly breakout", can be viewed as mid-bull market high-level consolidation; contract holdings have net outflow for 5 consecutive days -746k ETH, long-term funds taking profit, short-term funds speculating.
Trading Strategy
A. Aggressive Short: Limit entry at current price 3495, stop loss at 3505 (LVN upper edge +0.5ATR≈10), target 3450 (recent HVN inner side), risk-reward ratio = (3495-3450)/(3505-3495) = 4.8.
B. Conservative Short: Wait for 15m close below 3477 and break below 3450 confirmation, pullback to 3455 to enter, stop loss at 3470, target 3420, risk-reward ratio 2.3.
C. Reverse Long: If 1h volume breaks 3520 and Up Volume > 80%, pullback to 3515 long, stop loss 3490, target 3570 (2ATR), risk-reward ratio 3.2.
Risk Control
• Key Failure: If price stabilizes above 3520 or breaks below 3430, stop loss immediately.
• Position: Single risk ≤ 1%, leverage ≤ 5x.
• Avoid 30 minutes before and after today's 20:00 options expiry.
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This article is sponsored by @Ad Space!
$ETH
Summary: ETH current price 3477, just completed the "low-volume rise + contract reduction" enticing long combination, the upper range 3500-3520 is a high-pressure LVN gap, the lower range 3450-3430 is the last defense line for bulls; short-term can place a sell order at 3495, stop loss at 3505, target 3450, risk-reward ratio 4.8; if it stabilizes above 3520 with increased volume, then reverse to chase long up to 3570, stop loss at 3490. Risk: contract holdings have decreased for 5 consecutive days, order book sell orders are suppressed by 2.6 times, beware of false breakouts.
Key Range Structure
1. Value Anchor: POC at 2971 (maximum transaction in 2 weeks), 17% above the current price, indicating thin chips at high levels.
2. High Volume Buffer: HVN①2943-2971, HVN②2559-2588, the former is the first support for retracement, the latter is the deep retracement target.
3. Low Volume Gap: LVN①3497-3504 (currently being tested), LVN②2687-2701 (quick crossing area).
4. 70% Transaction Zone: 2432-3426, the current price is close to the upper edge, entering the "overbought edge".
Momentum Verification
• 3497-3504 LVN: Up Volume only 70%, did not reach the 80% breakout threshold, bears are dominant.
• Recent 4h rise +1.02%, but contracts have reduced by 16,000 ETH, a divergence between volume and price.
• Bollinger Band 1h upper edge 3494, price touched after RSI 52 → momentum weakens, consistent with the characteristics of the range top.
Market Cycle
In the "daily pullback phase after weekly breakout", can be viewed as mid-bull market high-level consolidation; contract holdings have net outflow for 5 consecutive days -746k ETH, long-term funds taking profit, short-term funds speculating.
Trading Strategy
A. Aggressive Short: Limit entry at current price 3495, stop loss at 3505 (LVN upper edge +0.5ATR≈10), target 3450 (recent HVN inner side), risk-reward ratio = (3495-3450)/(3505-3495) = 4.8.
B. Conservative Short: Wait for 15m close below 3477 and break below 3450 confirmation, pullback to 3455 to enter, stop loss at 3470, target 3420, risk-reward ratio 2.3.
C. Reverse Long: If 1h volume breaks 3520 and Up Volume > 80%, pullback to 3515 long, stop loss 3490, target 3570 (2ATR), risk-reward ratio 3.2.
Risk Control
• Key Failure: If price stabilizes above 3520 or breaks below 3430, stop loss immediately.
• Position: Single risk ≤ 1%, leverage ≤ 5x.
• Avoid 30 minutes before and after today's 20:00 options expiry.
Like and follow for real-time updates!
This article is sponsored by @Ad Space!
$ETH
Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
