Institutions battle at the 120,000 mark! BTC triangle end showdown, how can retail investors ride the whale's tailwind?

"When the Bollinger Bands contract and engulf the EMA cluster, the 3% premium on CME futures predicts the storm of change earlier than the candlestick."

1. Technical Aspect: Bulls firmly defend 116,000, bears covet the 115,000 breakout point

  1. "Third Time Hitting the Rising Wedge":
    Daily level, BTC strikes for the third time this week122,000Dollar fails, forming a long upper shadow, accurately suppressed by the upper bound of the rising wedge. If today’s close falls below115,000(50EMA + Trend Line), it will declare a wedge breakdown, fearing to trigger10% deep correction.

  2. 4-hour "Death Cross" Warning:

    • MACD bars turn red + death cross: 4-hour MACD double lines form a high position death cross, bars turn from red to green, indicating short-term momentum exhaustion.

    • Bollinger Bands contract to suffocating range: bandwidth compresses to 115,000 (lower bound) - 118,200 (middle band), volatility approaches the critical point, ready to explode into one-sided market.

    • Retail sell-off signal appears: 30-minute SAR resistance point hangs above current price, VWAP 117,300 becomes the intra-day bull-bear watershed—if not breached, it accelerates the bottoming process.

2. News Aspect: Trump "pardons" Powell vs. Cryptocurrency Bill Successfully Passes

  1. Policy Black Swan Fades:

    • Trump publicly states he will not fire Federal Reserve Chair Powell, easing the uncertainty of "rate cut expectations," with the NASDAQ hitting new highs overnight, transmitting to the crypto space.

    • Cryptocurrency bill passes procedural vote in the House, Trump personally intervenes to break the deadlock, regulatory clarity boosts institutional confidence.

  2. Whales' Dark War on Chain:

    • ARK Invest cashes out 8.7 million USD BTC ETF: Cathie Wood reduces holdings ahead of CPI, smart money senses short-term risks.

    • CME plans to launch 24/7 cryptocurrency trading: Traditional capital access expands again, SOL, XRP futures daily trading exceeds 7 billion USD, altcoin season preliminary battle begins.




      3. My Trading Script: Bloody Washout Before Triangle Breakdown

Case Review: In early July, BTC surged from 93,000 to 122,000, a 31% increase, but derivative trading volume fell by 14.35%, and spot trading volume plummeted by 22%—a typical "no-volume rise" trap.

Bullish Defense Zone: 115,000-116,000 (Triple Fortress: EMA50 + Wedge Lower Bound + Maximum Pain Point for Options)
Stop loss if it breaks, buy the dip if it holds

  • Bearish Breakpoint: Falling below 115,000 triggers leveraged liquidation, target 112,500 (liquidity pool) + 110,000 (institutional buy-in)

  • Assault Signal: Volume breakout at 118,200 (Bollinger Middle Band) to chase longs, target 120,000 → 125,000

"When Trump's rhetoric meets ARK's sell-off, when CME's 24/7 trading encounters the 115,000 iron bottom—do you choose to be ground into fuel at the triangle's end, or follow the whales to harvest volatility dividends? Specific buy and sell points, follow the Shen Ce homepage!#山寨季何时到来？ "