The market is like a battlefield; the resistance level is a hill, breaking through is a smooth path, failing to break through is a graveyard!”—Today’s ETH at $3826 is the 'gates of hell' for the bulls and bears!
1. Technical Aspect: At midnight today, ETH continued the upward trend from last night, successfully breaking through 3800, reaching a high of 3826, then falling back to a low of 3680, with significant volatility. From the 1-hour chart, ETH is currently consolidating in a range between 3720-3770!
2. Today's three major scenarios: Breakthrough, Encountering Resistance, Stalling
Based on market signals, ETH is likely to choose one of these three scenarios today (and may switch back and forth):
Scenario 1: Strong Breakthrough, 3826 Becomes Support
If the price can break through 3826 with increased volume (trading volume increasing by over 30% compared to the previous hour) and both K-line closing prices stabilize above it, it means the bulls have completely overwhelmed the bears. At this point, 3826 will change from a 'resistance level' to a 'support level'—just like capturing enemy positions in battle makes it your defense line.
Scenario 2: Encountering Resistance and Pulling Back, Short-term Peak
A more common situation is that the price hits around 3826 and then 'fizzles out'—the K-line shows a long upper shadow, doji, or trading volume increases but the price does not rise (volume stagnation). This indicates that the bears are holding firm here, and the bulls lack momentum.
Scenario 3: Stalling, Consolidation
If the price is hovering just below 3826, neither breaking through nor crashing, it indicates that both sides are 'talking tough'—the bulls want to build momentum, while the bears want to waste time. At this time, it's best to observe, don't rush to chase highs or panic sell, wait until the direction is clear.
3. Breaking News: Today's market's 'X factor'
In addition to technical aspects, today we must keep an eye on two 'life-saving messages':
Regulatory Update: The U.S. House of Representatives passed the (Stablecoin Bill) last week, and today if rumors spread about the “SEC approving ETH spot ETFs” (even if just rumors), bulls might go “crazy,” easily breaking 3826; conversely, if news comes out that “a certain exchange is under investigation,” prices could plummet in advance.
On-chain Data: According to CoinWorld data, a certain whale transferred 2805 ETH to OKX 9 hours ago (worth 10.54 million USD), which may be preparing for a sell-off; however, on the other hand, the supply of USDe stablecoins has returned to 6 billion, indicating that market funds are ample, giving bulls ammunition.
Personal Opinion: Your actions determine profit and loss; the market is dead, but people are alive. Today’s focus on 3826 is not about guessing whether it will break through, but rather about formulating your own action plan based on breakthrough/obstruction signals: if it breaks, take a light long position with a stop-loss at 3800 and a target at 3900; if it encounters resistance: short-term short position with a stop-loss at 3830 and a target at 3720;
Stalling: Drink tea and watch the show, wait for clear direction before taking action.
Final piece of advice: Don’t be swayed by extreme statements like “breaking through means a surge” or “encountering resistance means a crash.” The market unfolds rather than being guessed. Keep a close watch on the battle for 3826, combined with trading volume and news, and you can see the direction earlier than 90% of people!
I am Shence, the 'human candlestick chart' of the crypto world, breaking down the market in plain language every day. Follow me to avoid traps and seize the next opportunity to get rich!#以太坊突破3700
