First, let's talk about the conclusion:

① Although the CPI data is favorable, it still hasn't prevented inflation from trending upwards due to tariffs; it's just slightly better than expected, not as high as anticipated, thus providing a modest boost to the risk market. However, this does not fundamentally change the fact that there will be no interest rate cuts in July. Currently, the market is betting on a rate cut in September, with a particular focus on whether the cut will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points. Therefore, this wave of market activity is likely a preemptive speculation on the expectations of the September rate cut.

② Prices are still rebounding. A successful breakthrough of 118500 will aim for the range of [120600-121400]. The effective support range below is [116500-116900]. If it effectively breaks below 116500, further adjustments will be observed, looking down towards around 115000.

③ Can new highs still be achieved? Only by stabilizing above 120600 can we look for new highs. Otherwise, we will wait to see how the rebound plays out. Will there be a more significant adjustment? The focus is on today’s price movement. However, even if it breaks down, as mentioned yesterday, if prices reach lower levels, we will need to observe the reaction within the range of [112500-113300] before determining the next steps. After all, the support in this range is quite strong. #山寨季何时到来？ #Strategy增持比特币 #BTC再创新高