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The GDP and PCE data for the first quarter of the United States, released the night before last, shows that the year-on-year growth rate of GDP is only -0.3%, far below market expectations, making it feel like the U.S. economy is cooling down. Moreover, the PCE data is also ridiculously high, with inflationary pressures still rising. However, strangely, the market only experienced a slight decline and did not crash. What’s going on? Let’s break it down piece by piece.

First, why is the GDP so poor? Is this really a signal of recession? The annualized growth rate of the U.S. real GDP in the first quarter is only -0.3%, which is not only far lower than market expectations but also much worse than the previous quarter. From the data, it indeed feels like the economy is in trouble. However, looking a bit deeper, there is a key indicator called domestic private final sales, which reflects domestic demand in the U.S., and it has grown at an annualized rate of 3%. What does this mean? Simply put, people are still spending money, businesses are still purchasing equipment and building, and real estate investment hasn’t stopped. Domestic demand in the U.S. remains fairly stable, and the economic foundation hasn’t collapsed. So why is the GDP so terrible? The culprit is Trump’s tariff policy. Tariffs have caused import costs to skyrocket, disrupted supply chains, and directly dragged down economic growth. In the first quarter, imports surged, dragging down GDP by a staggering 5.03%. Why did imports soar? Because businesses are trying to stock up! They are worried that tariffs will be even higher after Trump takes office, making costs more expensive, so they are desperately hoarding raw materials.

Trump himself couldn't sit still and publicly stated that the fluctuations in the stock market are problems left behind by Biden, attempting to shift the blame.

In summary, we are not yet at the point of widespread pessimism about the U.S. economy. The U.S. consumption growth rate remains around 3%, which is at the historical average level, indicating that people are still spending money. Since they are still spending, it suggests that the domestic situation is not as fragile as we might think, and the economic foundation is still quite solid.

【$btc】2025.4.30

① For the price to rise, it needs to effectively break through 95400 at least. If the price wants to adjust downwards, it must effectively break below 93200 at least. As for what is happening now and what it wants to do, I also don't know. Yesterday, I was hoping to see a breakout, but it came down again, then rebounded up, and now I don't know if it's gathering strength or preparing to take profits. Regardless of how you look at it, it reflects that at the current position, bulls and bears are evenly matched. Perhaps they are all waiting for the information to be released tonight. Then they will decide on the potential direction of movement.

② If one is to make a trade, which direction would be more suitable? Long. On the short term, there is support in the range of 【93900-94300】. The support given yesterday was 【94000-94200】, and this morning it hit a low of 93700, so going long, although it doesn't earn much, at least it earns a little, haha.

From a technical perspective, there's really not much to analyze, just wait for tonight's news to come out. #币安Alpha上新 #特朗普就职百日 #阿布扎比稳定币

Bitcoin may experience extreme volatility. The BTC concentration indicator shows that there may be a wave of significant market movement soon. What is concentration? It refers to the fact that many BTC purchase prices are concentrated near the current price, making market sentiment easily ignitable, which could lead to a surge or a crash. Historical data indicates that when the concentration exceeds 13%, it often signals a potential for large fluctuations. The last time the concentration was high, it surged by 42% in February 2024 and then fell by 15% in February 2025. Currently, it has reached about 12%, approaching a sensitive area.

Additionally, the BTC distribution shows that while it seems there is no volatility at the moment, a large number of chips are highly concentrated between 【93200-97500】. Whether it's taking profits from below or selling out from above, a lot of trading is happening in this area right now. And when someone is selling, it means someone is buying in large amounts. For example, MicroStrategy bought another $1.42 billion worth of BTC last week, with an average purchase price of $92,737.

In summary, it's coming soon; a big move is about to happen, either a surge or a crash. Personally, I believe that after a surge, there will be a correction followed by another surge, resulting in a reversal. Alternatively, there could be a crash, followed by a round of cleansing and then another surge, leading to a reversal. Regardless of which scenario occurs, the reversal window will definitely be accompanied by news of interest rate cuts. #特朗普就职百日 #币安Alpha上新 #阿布扎比稳定币

Pay attention to one thing, Ethereum spot ETF has seen a net inflow of $64.1159 million, with continuous net inflows for 3 days. Recently, the purchasing power of Ethereum ETFs has doubled, with retail investors, whales, and super whales all increasing their positions. BlackRock increased its holdings by 53,000 in two days, Fidelity added 20,000, and even Grayscale increased by 10,000.

Almost all ETH spot ETFs in the United States are increasing their positions, with the least purchasing 1,000. It is unclear whether this is influenced by BTC or if there is some major event happening that we are unaware of?! #特朗普就职百日 #阿布扎比稳定币 #SEC推迟多个现货ETF审批

The BTC bill in Arizona mentioned in the past couple of days, is there hope for it? Has it passed?

If it passed completely, the market would have surged, haha, obviously it hasn’t. Yesterday, the Arizona legislature passed a significant bill to classify Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, but! Now it just needs the governor's signature, and she has 5 business days to decide whether to sign it or not, or let it go without action, allowing it to pass by default. Once it passes, Arizona would become the first state in the U.S. to treat BTC as a strategic reserve. This is different from Trump's national strategic reserve, which cannot use taxpayer money to purchase BTC, but the former can use up to 10% of financial or retirement funds to directly buy BTC. Although it may not buy much in the short term, the significance of this is monumental, equivalent to an official endorsement of BTC. Moreover! Once the first state takes the lead, it will be easier for other states to follow, potentially triggering a domino effect.

Therefore, as long as it passes completely, the price is likely to go up, and it remains a long-term benefit! #SEC推迟多个现货ETF审批 #特朗普就职百日 #亚利桑那比特币储备 #阿布扎比稳定币

At 8:30 PM tonight, the U.S. first quarter GDP data will be released, and the market's attention is very high, as this will determine the short-term market direction. Currently, the market expectation has been adjusted to 0.2%, indicating that the market lacks confidence in economic growth.

If the released data exceeds 2.4%, concerns about a recession will dissipate, and the U.S. stock market is likely to rise; however, this is quite challenging. If it falls between 1% and 2.4%, it indicates that the U.S. economy is still growing at a slow pace and may achieve a soft landing, leading to relatively stable market sentiment, which can be seen as a small positive. If it is between 0.2% and 1%, it merely meets market expectations, reflecting insufficient confidence. If it is between 0% and 0.2%, although it is still growing, it is essentially a negative. At that time, the tug-of-war between bulls and bears will be fierce. If it is below 0%, it would fundamentally be very bearish, and market panic emotions will intensify, unless the Federal Reserve or the White House takes emergency measures; otherwise, the U.S. stock market may experience a significant drop.

Therefore, it is currently advisable to remain on the sidelines, as the market uncertainty is very high, and the tug-of-war tonight will be intense. It would be wise to wait for the GDP data to be released before seeking opportunities. #特朗普就职百日 #币安Alpha上新 #Strategy增持比特币 #阿布扎比稳定币

【$btc】2025.4.29

① Converging fluctuations, with a greater possibility of an upward breakout. If it wants to go down, it must at least break below 93500; if it cannot do this, don't blindly look for adjustments. I want to emphasize again that the current trend is very healthy. The market news we can know today, apart from the earnings reports of the four tech giants in the US stock market, is temporarily limited. Tomorrow is a significant day. If we find a breakout today, then tomorrow there might be adjustments, in conjunction with news, etc. It’s not certain. Especially if $btc really breaks through the previous high and effectively breaks above 96200, any adjustment might seem insignificant. At that point, there is no need to panic or to constantly worry about major corrections. The current pressure is concentrated around 【95100-96200】. Further up, it’s roughly 【98300-99600】.

② The support below is mainly 【94000-94200】, with the defensive position at 93500. The price that needs to break through and stabilize above is 95400. In between is the converging fluctuation.

In summary, in this kind of market, it basically can't go down much further. Even if it truly does go down, it’s an opportunity being presented. The bearish news has mostly been exhausted; the only remaining concern might be the issue of a recession in the US economy. Of course, as long as the Federal Reserve has not started cutting interest rates, there is no money in the market, and any rebound is always just a rebound. However, once the Federal Reserve starts to have expectations of rate cuts, well, you know what that means. #加密市场反弹 #Strategy增持比特币 #AI概念币领跑

Recently, the market has generally recovered from the decline caused by tariffs, and US stocks have basically returned to the high point of April 2. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are only 1-2% away from their previous highs, and it is estimated that they will test this resistance level early this week. As for Bitcoin, it's a wild horse that has broken free. However, relying solely on market sentiment to drive this rebound may not last much longer. Therefore, the next thing to watch is whether there will be substantial positive news, such as strong US economic data, favorable news within the crypto industry, or whether the Bitcoin bill in Arizona will pass on Tuesday local time; if it passes, that would be a significant positive!

Currently, everyone is more concerned about the actual performance of economic data, and the market focus has shifted from tariff disputes to economic fundamentals. The founder of MicroStrategy has released a Bitcoin tracker again, which indicates they are likely preparing to buy the dip and raise prices. Furthermore, a whale on the blockchain has been tracked buying 30,000 ETH and 600 BTC in the past two days, with a total value exceeding $110 million.

Next, GDP and PCE data are key, which was particularly highlighted yesterday. If GDP exceeds expectations, for example, surpassing 0.4%, it would indicate that the US economy is not that bad, and US stocks and Bitcoin may continue to rise. But if the data disappoints, the market may face a significant adjustment. Additionally, for the PCE data, if it shows no significant inflationary pressures, the market will feel more at ease. However, if inflation rises, everyone may become cautious. #加密市场反弹 #Strategy增持比特币 #AI概念币领跑

Will there be an economic crisis in 2025-2026?

Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates has warned that the $36 trillion U.S. debt is a ticking time bomb, and the global economy may face a reshuffle. Currently, China and Japan are indeed reducing their holdings of U.S. debt, and S&P has downgraded the U.S. credit rating, which the market already senses as a crisis. Adding to this is the economic cycle that sees a crisis every 8-10 years; after the 2008 financial crisis, 2025-2026 certainly poses a challenge. The U.S. economy is indeed in significant trouble, with issues in debt, trade wars, and geopolitical problems, any one of which is concerning. We should remain vigilant and refer back to the changes in the situation and life during the 2008 financial crisis.

Interestingly, Wall Street bigwigs are already betting on Bitcoin. Why? If U.S. debt really encounters problems, the dollar will inevitably suffer too. If the dollar loses its value, what will the world use for transactions? BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has stated that no matter how high Bitcoin rises, they are still aggressively buying Bitcoin ETFs and treating Bitcoin as digital gold to stockpile.

In summary, the next few years may indeed be tumultuous. It is advisable to pay attention to economic signals, such as whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in May-June and the progress of the tariff war. Don't keep all your money in the bank; consider buying some gold and Bitcoin as safe-haven assets. #加密市场反弹 #Strategy增持比特币 #AI概念币领跑

Attention! Trump may significantly reduce tariffs on China within the next month, keeping them within what he considers a 'reasonable' range. Here are a few points of significance.

1. Trump has made a rare admission of fault! In a recent interview, he stated that the current situation between China and the U.S. is not China's fault, but his own mistake. Under the 145% high tariffs he implemented, no business could be conducted. Therefore, there may be a turnaround.
2. Large supermarket enterprises like Walmart have started notifying our suppliers to resume deliveries, with the increased costs due to tariffs being borne by the U.S. side. Prior to this, American companies led by Walmart held a closed-door meeting with Trump. Although the content of the meeting is unclear, the fact that it has allowed Chinese suppliers to resume deliveries indicates that Trump is indeed very likely to significantly reduce trade tariffs on China within a month.

For this reason, May is very much worth looking forward to! #加密市场反弹 #Strategy增持比特币 #AI概念币领跑

Attention! Trump has started stirring things up again!

He has bundled personal tax cuts with national tariffs, trying to use tax cuts to offset the price increases caused by tariffs, and may even exempt certain groups from taxes altogether. The tax cuts mainly target individuals with an annual income below $200,000, and specifically include the upper middle class earning between $100,000 and $200,000, aiming to gain support from more voters.

Trump's strategy is that since tariffs are pushing up prices, tax cuts can allow the public to spend less, easing inflation pressure. At the same time, high tariffs force foreign companies to build factories in the U.S., creating job opportunities and lowering the unemployment rate, which would make the economic data look better. If Trump executes this plan well, it may lead to a continued short-term rise in U.S. stocks.

However! This can only relieve pressure temporarily. In the long run, whether tax cuts can completely offset the inflationary pressure from tariffs (likely not) will depend on the enforcement and economic data. #ProSharesTrustXRPETF #特朗普税改 #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC

In the early hours of Tuesday, Arizona will conduct a third reading on the Bitcoin state strategic reserve, which may go directly to a vote. If passed, it will be sent to the governor for approval. If not passed, well...

We all know what happens if it doesn't pass. But what if it does? Once approved, Arizona will become the first state in the U.S. to treat BTC as a strategic reserve. This is different from Trump's national strategic reserve. Trump said taxpayer money cannot be used to buy BTC, but Arizona can directly purchase Bitcoin with up to 10% of its fiscal or retirement funds.

Although not much can be bought in the short term, this is significant. Why? Because a spot ETF only makes it easier for institutions and retail investors to buy Bitcoin, while a state government purchasing it directly equals an official endorsement for Bitcoin! More importantly, the first state sets a precedent, making it easier for other states to follow suit, which could trigger a domino effect. In the long term, this will inevitably boost the demand for Bitcoin and market confidence. #特朗普税改 #美股财报周来袭 #ProSharesTrustXRPETF

On Wednesday, the U.S. first quarter GDP and March PCE data will be released. So! Wednesday is a very important day! From a cyclical perspective, if there are gains on Monday and Tuesday, then Wednesday will likely see a decline, and the culprit for this decline may be a certain piece of news, such as the announcement of the U.S. GDP.

GDP will reflect whether the U.S. economy is doing well or not; market expectations are very low, only 0.4%. If it exceeds expectations, U.S. stocks and BTC might continue to surge. But if the data is too poor, well, let’s just take a roller coaster ride together.

Furthermore, this PCE data reflects inflationary pressures; the tariff increase in March will likely push prices up. If PCE rises sharply, the market might react, so you see how critical Wednesday is?! #特朗普税改 #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC #以太坊的未来

This week, four of the seven tech giants will be releasing their earnings reports, along with MicroStrategy, a company heavily invested in Bitcoin. These earnings reports will directly impact the sentiment in the U.S. stock market, which in turn indirectly determines the trends of Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market. Therefore, the results of these earnings reports are not to be overlooked. If the tech giants perform well, the U.S. stock market may continue to rise. However, if the earnings reports disappoint, it could lead to some trouble.

Market expectations suggest that the so-called 'seven giants' will have an average profit growth rate of 15% by 2025. Despite escalating trade tensions, this forecast has changed little since early March. This increases the risk for the four large companies releasing earnings reports this week, as their combined weight in the S&P 500 index is nearly 20%. In an already fearful market atmosphere, traders are unlikely to forgive these companies if their performance falls short of expectations, even though their stock prices have already dropped significantly. Therefore, the announcement of these earnings reports is likely to be negative news. #特朗普税改 #美股财报周来袭 #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC #ProSharesTrustXRPETF

【$btc】2025.4.28

① The tariff negotiations have shown some movement; South Korea and India have already started discussions, and Japan and the United States also plan to continue talks at the end of April or early May. What about the highly anticipated China-U.S. negotiations? Although Trump hasn't made any significant statements, our central bank governor will attend the World Bank and IMF meetings in the U.S. this week, and there may be some low-level communications. However, don't expect the China-U.S. negotiations to be like those with other countries; the long-term trend in China-U.S. relations is a decoupling, and the market is already psychologically prepared for this. Therefore, it's not a big deal if short-term negotiations don't reach an agreement, but as long as there is some small progress, market sentiment can improve a bit. Negotiations with other countries, such as South Korea, will also not be resolved quickly, and at the earliest, it may drag into July. This means that tariff negotiations are a protracted battle, and there won't be any major breakthroughs in the short term, but small progress can stabilize market sentiment. Thus, regarding tariff issues, the possibility of shocking the market is quite low. So, what news could cause a series of fatal blows to the market?! Anyway, I still don't know for now.

② The current trend is very healthy, so what could make it unhealthy or pose a risk of a significant drop? A valid drop below 91200. However, even so, the likelihood of a sustained decline is also very low, and the extent of the drop would be quite limited. So how can you expect me to directly foresee a major drop starting now? Oh, just because interest rates are expected to be lowered in the second half of the year, but we don't know the month yet, so we must start seeing a peak drop now? Doesn't that seem a bit ridiculous? So, do you believe the opinions that are circulating online? If you want to believe, then go ahead and do it. If you don't believe, then take it step by step.

③ Upper pressure, 【95100-96200】. If we can effectively break through 96200 in the next couple of days, we will directly look towards 【98300-99700】. But be careful, if we can't get past 【95100-96200】, we will need to drop back to around 91200. So, in the next couple of days, we will basically see whether it will rise or fall. Currently, I am more inclined towards an upward trend. #ProSharesTrustXRPETF #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC #特朗普税改

$trump Analysis >>

From around 77, it has dropped all the way down to a low of around 7, a decline of over 90%. Generally speaking, the maximum pullback for such cryptocurrencies is about 90%, which means its extreme position is actually around 7, and it is currently likely at a stage bottom. If it wants to drop below 5 again, don’t expect it in the short term. If it really falls below 7, it might not just be as simple as 5.

At least during Trump's four-year term, this unpleasant thing will probably bounce back and forth, changing with Trump's fluctuations and being extremely sensitive to news. This is a relatively market-image cryptocurrency, and it won’t easily go unnoticed; it's worth your repeated attention.

Finally, in terms of trend, since the continuous decline, there have been considerable holding positions at each stage, all of which are bloody chips harvested earlier. Currently, the biggest pressure lies between 25 and 28. Once this is breached, it is expected to be a vast, open space. Is there a possibility of this? There must be a possibility, but it may not be in the next few days. So don't hold onto instantaneous fantasies.

The effective support below is probably between 10 and 11. Will there be a surge? It all depends on the performance over the next couple of days. #以太坊的未来 #加密货币总市值重回3万亿

Settlement map, even a blind person can see that the range of 【85500-87500】 is populated with a large number of long positions, while currently the price fluctuates, the long and short positions are evenly matched, with short positions being slightly more concentrated. Moving further up, there are basically no short positions left. Therefore, regarding the current market, I may tend to first continue to harvest the liquidity of short positions upwards, then focus on taking out a wave of high-leveraged longs downwards, and then form a consolidation pattern.

【$btc】2025.4.25

① This week, Trump has paused his criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and promised to significantly reduce the high tariffs of 145% on Chinese goods. Institutions continue to increase their positions, further solidifying $btc's market value. Active trading in $95,000 call options indicates that the market is betting on further upward movement. Current market sentiment is overheated, and in the short term, we may see fluctuations in the $90,000 to $94,500 range while waiting for a catalyst to break through the $100,000 mark. Therefore, in the larger direction, pressure in the $93,000-$95,000 range persists, and it is normal for prices to encounter resistance at this level. A large-scale structure has already emerged, and $btc has returned to the high volatility zone, where the time to test buying pressure has arrived. Regarding the cycle's judgment, I still believe we are in the late stage of a bull market, and the upward space is relatively limited. In other words, whenever there is another interest rate cut, or any indication of a rate cut, that will ignite another explosive mini-bull market. As for a major bull market, don’t expect too much.

② In the short term, if the price can effectively break through $93,500 today and maintain a position above it for a while, the next target will be around 【$95,100-$96,200】. If it effectively breaks through $96,200, the upward space will open again, aiming for the critical $100,000 level. Conversely, if it cannot hold $93,500 and effectively falls below $92,800, then this rebound is basically a trap for the bulls, and we will need to test the support at 【$91,000-$91,500】. In summary, even if there is a downward movement, it truly presents you with an opportunity. The trend is very healthy. #以太坊的未来 #币安上线INIT #比特币市值排名

【Total Net Outflow Volume of BTC Across All Exchanges】
Since February 2023, the highest Bitcoin outflow from exchanges, a review of historical patterns suggests that this may indicate investors are re-accumulating assets, which means that we are currently at a relatively low phase. #比特币市值排名 #TRUMP晚宴 #加密货币总市值重回3万亿

【$btc】2025.4.24

①$btc is starting to adjust, which is normal. This adjustment will continue in the short term, so observe the extent of the adjustment and the trading volume, as this directly reflects the strength of selling pressure. Additionally, a significant bottom structure has emerged. If it can effectively break through 95000, then there is a high chance that the price will return to the high volatility range, which is a sign of a continuing bull market and creates opportunities for the altcoin market to strengthen. At this stage, the altcoin market is still correlated, and the market is still brewing. After $btc completes a phase of upward movement, the altcoin season may be expected.

②The adjustment that has occurred this time is direct and rapid; almost before you realize it, the adjustment has completed at least half of its course, emphasizing the word "fast." Now the question arises, will it draw a door? There is effective support below, 【90900-91400】. If today's adjustment sees the price effectively drop below 90900, while I don't believe it will completely draw it, at least two-thirds of the door will likely be drawn. Moreover, this is a troublesome matter, as it directly affects whether the price can sustain a rebound. At this effective support level, if there is a valid signal of a stop in decline, then one can attempt to establish a long position on the right side. If not, continue to observe or look for opportunities to short at higher prices.

③The main resistance above is approximately 【92900-93600】. If the price can effectively break through 93600, then it is likely to challenge 96000 or even higher prices. However, from the current trend, the possibility of continued adjustment seems to be greater.