The cryptocurrency market fell 1.72% (from $3.67 trillion to $3.61 trillion), with Bitcoin facing profit-taking and macroeconomic challenges. Although weekly gains (+9.98%) remain, today's drop reflects a cooling of the rally, regulatory uncertainties, and nervousness in traditional markets.
Profit-taking on the rise – $3.5 billion in realized profits in BTC, with investors selling near historical highs.
Supply shock – An inactive wallet since 2011 moved 80,000 BTC, with over 40,000 sold via Galaxy Digital.
Regulatory paralysis – Major projects in the US (CLARITY and GENIUS laws) did not advance during the "Cryptocurrency Week."
Macroeconomic impact – Delays in Fed interest rate cuts and new tariffs from Trump against Russia generated risk aversion.
Detailed Analysis
1. Profit-Taking Pressure (Bearish Impact)
Overview:
Long-term BTC investors withdrew $1.96 billion (56% of total profits) after the price approached $123,000, while short-term traders realized $1.54 billion. This coordinated outflow occurred after Bitcoin surged 75% this year, with the RSI14 index at 77.95 indicating overbought conditions.
What this means:
The Gravestone Doji candle pattern at $123,000 and liquidations of over $160 million in BTC below $115,000 showed fragile support zones. Accumulating wallets recently bought $30 billion in BTC, but the possibility of selling by this group poses a risk.
Stay tuned:
Bitcoin needs to maintain the average level of $113.6 thousand within the demand zone between $115 thousand and $111 thousand — a drop below this may trigger cascading liquidations.
2. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Headwinds (Mixed Impact)
Overview:
The crypto market closely followed traditional stocks (0.84 correlation with the SPY index), while Trump's threats of 50% tariffs against Russia and persistent inflation (June IPCA at +2.7% year-on-year) reduced risk appetite. Fed member Collins' remarks on the need for "patience" for rate cuts boosted 10-year bond yields.
What this means:
The failure to approve the GENIUS law left the regulation of stablecoins uncertain, while JPMorgan and Citi's stablecoin plans (CoinDesk) were not enough to alleviate macroeconomic anxiety. Traditional capital flows have slowed down, with spot BTC ETFs recording outflows of $133 million.
3. Technical Adjustment (Neutral to Bearish)
Overview:
The market rejected the Fibonacci extension of 127.2% at $3.75 trillion, retreating to test the 23.6% retracement level at $3.59 trillion. Open interest in perpetual contracts fell by 5.66%, indicating that traders reduced leverage.
What this means:
RSI readings above 70 in the 7 and 14-day periods indicate that a correction was expected. The rejection of ETH at $3,000 and the drop of DOGE below the $0.19 support further amplified altcoin weakness.
Conclusion
Today's drop combines the natural profit-taking after a parabolic rally with external pressures, such as delays in interest rate cuts and regulatory setbacks. Although the 7 and 30-day trends remain optimistic, support at $3.59 trillion is crucial — a sustained drop could lead to testing the $3.5 trillion level (38.2% Fibonacci). Will the $30 billion accumulating group in Bitcoin be able to absorb the selling pressure, or will macroeconomic uncertainty prolong consolidation?
