On the evening of July 16, 2025, the 177th Uweb live broadcast sharing session was held in a lively atmosphere, hosted by Uweb President Yu Jianing, with special guest Bit Factory providing an in-depth analysis. This session focused on three major themes: weekly report analysis, an overview of the development of RWA in Hong Kong, and U.S. stocks on the blockchain: objectives, challenges, and impacts, targeting Bitcoin's future trends, RWA track, stablecoin market, Hong Kong compliant exchanges, and changes in altcoin logic, revealing wealth codes and investment opportunities for Web3 investors. The following is a summary of the live broadcast highlights from a media perspective, divided into three main topics, with three to four sub-topics generated around core content, presenting the latest trends in the Web3 market.
1. Weekly Report Analysis
Bitcoin Airdrops and Market Vitality
This live broadcast announced that the Bitcoin airdrop for this month and previous ones (including winners and promoters) will be settled at the end of the month, with a low frequency of airdrops, encouraging the audience to share the live room links to participate and enhance interactivity. In terms of the market, Bitcoin has broken historical highs and entered a main uptrend phase, with market sentiment running high. Ethereum has outperformed Bitcoin, with XRP, Solana, and some altcoins (like MK) showing active performance, but the overall rise of altcoins is limited, with insufficient liquidity transmission, indicating that funds are more inclined towards mainstream coins and RWA-related assets. Bit Factory points out that although the Web3 circle is 'hot outside but cold inside', some investors are feeling low due to previous confidence setbacks, but traditional financial capital is accelerating inflow, and Web3 remains the area with the greatest potential for wealth growth.
Insights into On-chain and Off-chain Data
On-chain data shows that holders who have held for 155 days sold 18,000 BTC, while over a year holders began distributing, with profits being realized steadily. The UTXO energy band reveals a chip vacuum area of $114,000-$115,000, indicating a retracement opportunity for building positions; the global momentum radar shows that investor confidence in the Americas and Asia is recovering, while Europe remains cautious, limiting upside potential, with a top estimate of $140,000-$150,000, and a more optimistic scenario possibly higher. Off-chain data indicates that spot ETFs had a net inflow of $2.3 billion this week, July rate cut expectations collapsed, and September rate cut probabilities stand at 47%. The greed index is at 61%, with the market rational, trading volume, and funding rates not overheating, and the main uptrend is in the early stages of fluctuation. Bit Factory suggests that those in cash positions allocate some BTC, remain cautiously optimistic about altcoins, and be wary of liquidity and macro risks, solely for academic discussion.
Future Trends of Bitcoin and Investment Strategies
Bit Factory analyzes the historical rules of Bitcoin's halving cycles, each time rising about 20 times, with the current cycle (after the halving in April 2024) starting from a low of $15,500, with a theoretical high of $300,000. Currently around $100,000, there is a remaining upside of 3 times, with a long-term potential of reaching $1 million, surpassing gold's $26 trillion market cap. In the short term, it may retrace to $100,000, suggesting regular investments, and not recommending full liquidation or bearish positions. In contrast, the RWA track has a better cost-performance ratio, with RWA-related targets in Hong Kong and U.S. stocks (like LongXin Group rising 3 times, Walnut Capital rising 10 times) far exceeding Bitcoin's increase, suitable for new entrants. RWA is not strongly correlated with Bitcoin, but market sentiment is 'one thrives, all thrive; one suffers, all suffer.' If Bitcoin crashes, RWA stocks may retrace by 20%-30%, but due to their independent value, they will not crash systemically.
Overview of RWA Development in Hong Kong
RWA: The Wealth Code of Web3
RWA (Real World Assets) lowers investment thresholds and enhances liquidity through blockchain tokenization, hailed as the Web3 wealth code, covering assets such as Hong Kong stocks, U.S. stocks, and real estate trusts, with a market size expected to reach $10 trillion by 2025. Bit Factory introduces its core features: providing Mini IPO financing channels for unlisted companies, transparent on-chain trading, a 30% reduction in operating costs, and coverage of global retail investors. Current market sentiment is 'coins soar while RWA rises,' with significant price increases for companies like LongXin Group (3 times) and Walnut Capital (10 times), far exceeding Bitcoin, attracting a lot of capital attention.
Use Cases and Value of RWA
Taking LongXin Group as an example, on August 28, 2024, they completed the first domestic RWA for new energy charging piles in cooperation with Ant Group, with asset chains in Mainland China and trading chains in Hong Kong. UBS issued tokens, providing fixed income to investors; LongXin expanded charging piles through financing, with stock prices rising from 7.27 yuan to 21 yuan (peak 26 yuan), and market capitalization increasing to over 20 billion. Other cases include Taiji Capital's real estate STO raising 100 million HKD, Pacific Insurance's dollar money market fund tokenization, and XunYin Nuclear Power Station issuing tokens through the Conflux chain. Bit Factory points out that listed companies mainly use RWA for stock price increases while simultaneously financing, similar to a 'Dragon One' effect, significantly boosting market value.
Paths for Retail Investors to Invest in RWA
Retail investors find it difficult to participate directly in RWA issuance but can purchase shares of related listed companies through Hong Kong and U.S. stocks to share in the profits, such as Walnut Capital (stock price rose from 0.184 HKD to 1.49 HKD, 8 times), and Victory Securities (which provides virtual asset accounts supporting USDT and HKD exchange). Bit Factory suggests paying attention to rebound targets like Hainan Huatie, Yunlong Yatu, etc., adding to the watchlist to capture limit-up opportunities; or participating in IPOs in Hong Kong stocks (like Mixue Ice City), with accounts of 500,000 earning 10,000 to 30,000 monthly with no-risk returns. Investment should focus on project compliance and team backgrounds, avoiding blind chasing of high prices.
Future Trends of RWA in Hong Kong
Hong Kong's RWA is still in the pilot phase with weak liquidity, requiring ongoing open channels between Mainland China and Hong Kong to enhance trading activity. Bit Factory believes that RWA is similar to Mini IPOs, which will provide more financing channels for small and medium-sized enterprises, and in the long term, it could link Mainland assets with Web3, holding immense potential. The core lies in asset quality, and investors should focus on leading institutions (like Ant Group, Haskey) and compliance licenses (like License No. 7). Compared to U.S. stocks on the blockchain, the development of Hong Kong's RWA is slightly less mature than the U.S. market, but both serve the same purpose of reconstructing the asset management market through tokenization.
U.S. Stocks on the Blockchain: Objectives, Challenges, and Impacts
Core Purpose of U.S. Stocks on the Blockchain
The goal of U.S. stocks on the blockchain is to achieve tokenization of securities through blockchain, reconstructing the $20 trillion asset management market. Bit Factory points out that its main objectives include: enabling 5×24 or even 7×24 hour trading, breaking the 6.5-hour limit of the New York Stock Exchange; lowering investment thresholds, such as NVIDIA stock dropping from tens of thousands of dollars to $0.5; supporting non-standard assets (such as private equity and real estate trusts) on-chain, with market potential reaching $10 trillion; pushing traditional brokerages to extend trading hours or lower thresholds. U.S. stocks on the blockchain provide retail and institutional investors with more flexible investment channels, attracting global funds.
Challenges of U.S. Stocks on the Blockchain
Challenges Facing U.S. Stocks on the Blockchain: Compliance challenges must meet regulatory frameworks such as the SEC; Robinhood was fined for its pilot program; On-chain tokens lack traditional shareholder voting or dividend rights, which may lead listed companies to refuse recognition, causing legal risks; Unlisted equities (like Open AI) may be undervalued when tokenized, impacting subsequent IPOs; While U.S. stock markets are closed on weekends, on-chain contracts trade 24/7, leading to price deviations and increasing uncontrollable risks. Bit Factory emphasizes that the market needs to self-adjust to balance these challenges.
Models and Beneficiaries of U.S. Stocks on the Blockchain
U.S. stocks on the blockchain are divided into synthetic tokens (derivatives based on market data, suitable for high-risk preferences, with lower volatility) and physical type tokens (1:1 asset reserves, suitable for stable investors). Exchanges like Bitget and Bybit earn fees by promoting contracts. Beneficiaries include Coinbase, Robinhood (pilot program for unlisted equities like Open AI), and HaiTou Exchange (chain-linked Apple, Tesla stocks) and Ethereum holders; traditional brokerages like Goldman Sachs are under pressure due to competition. Bit Factory points out that Robinhood's stock price has continued to rise through tokenization pilot programs, demonstrating market potential.
Impact of U.S. Stocks on the Blockchain on Web3
In the short term, U.S. stocks on the blockchain exert pressure on altcoins, causing retail investors to possibly shift towards less volatile U.S. stock token contracts (like Tesla and NVIDIA), eliminating tail-end projects and forcing value accumulation. In the long term, U.S. stocks on the blockchain will expand the Web3 market size, attracting traditional financial users (like cross-border traders) to enter, activating the DeFi ecosystem, and increasing trading volumes of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Bit Factory believes that U.S. stocks on the blockchain will drive the integration of real assets with the crypto world, bringing new opportunities to the industry.
Other Key Topics
Market Size and Competition of Stablecoins
Bit Factory predicts that the stablecoin market will grow from the current $260 billion to $3.5 trillion in five years, a tenfold increase, driven by cross-border payments and DeFi demand. USDC is more trusted by institutions due to its 100% dollar peg and monthly audit transparency, while USDT has lower transparency but may enhance compliance through bank acquisitions. Trump USD One, PayPal PYUSD, and potential government stablecoins may compete for market share, raising concerns about tightening regulations and custodial bank risks. Circle (the issuer of USDC) has a market cap of $45 billion, with a reasonable short-term stock price of $140-180, a mid-term increase of 40%-100%, and potentially reaching 7 times in the long term, with its moat being compliance and ecological advantages.
Investment Opportunities in Hong Kong Compliant Exchanges
Hong Kong compliant exchanges like SHK (Victory Securities, leaning towards traditional finance), OSL (licensed digital asset platform, strong Web3 attributes), Spark Technology, and OKC (deeply related to Web3, potentially shelling onto U.S. stocks) each have their unique features. Bit Factory suggests diversifying investments in companies within the same sector, focusing on lagging targets, and prioritizing those with lower increases (like OKC); if the industry rises overall, one can increase positions. If Bitcoin crashes, related stocks may retrace by 20%-30%, necessitating attention to fundamentals.
Shift in Altcoin Logic
U.S. stocks on the blockchain change the logic of altcoins, reducing the number of traditional hundredfold coins, with funds shifting towards Hong Kong stocks, U.S. stock tokenization (like Walnut Capital rising 10 times), or ground promotion projects (like GB rising 10 times, CoinUp raising 200 million). Bit Factory suggests that retail investors participate in high-risk projects with small amounts with an open mindset, focusing on team backgrounds (like listed company affiliates), and being wary of the risk of fund misappropriation. Early participants may gain high returns but should not chase high prices.
Uweb's 177th live broadcast reveals new investment trends in Web3: RWA and U.S. stocks on-chain are leading high-yield investment avenues, with Bitcoin expected to rise to $150,000-$300,000 in the long term; regular investments are recommended; RWA reconstructs the asset management market, with significant increases in LongXin Group and Walnut Capital; U.S. stocks on-chain lower thresholds and activate DeFi; the stablecoin market may reach $3.5 trillion within five years; Hong Kong compliant exchanges have rebound potential. Investors should diversify their portfolios, focus on fundamentals, and leverage Uweb courses to seize opportunities. The live broadcast replay can be viewed on Xiaohongshu, and necessary recommendations must be obtained through WeChat from Teacher Zhao Yumei.
