Let's talk about why altcoins should at least wait for the interest rate cuts in 8/9 before there are opportunities. Take today's ancient addresses as an example. If they move slightly, Bitcoin drops by nearly ten thousand dollars!
From here, we can see that the market still has no liquidity. The current level can only maintain the existing mainstream. Looking back at the recent Bitcoin all-time high, Ethereum also rose by 20 points, but if we look back, the explosive growth of altcoins is concentrated in those with market caps of tens of millions.
Speaking of this, someone will surely say that’s not right! Those large market caps like XRP, AAVE, MKR, BCH have also moved, right? In fact, since the ETF was approved, Bitcoin has increasingly seemed to be separating from the crypto world.
These tokens of white ancestry are gradually moving towards the second tier. If you look at the price increase, you will understand. Those tokens with market caps of tens of millions have seen a doubling, while those above five billion or ten billion average only about 20 points. This can only be said to follow the normal level of the market, as an attachment!
In contrast, those tokens with a market cap of tens of millions create the illusion of high liquidity when they increase several times. But I need to tell you, these are all individual actions. There is a practice called off-market discounted trading, meaning that the project parties sell the tokens at a discount to the operators!
These tokens represent zero cost to the project parties, and currently, the market generally has a poor reputation for altcoins. Some projects that lack funds and strength might trade off-market at a discount of 70% or even 80%. This type of token operation only requires having 30% of the tokens, meaning that for a token with a market cap of 30 million, they only need to have 10 million in chips.
And they might only need two to three million to get their chips, their first move only needs to pull up the price. Some say that pulling up the price is just giving retail investors a chance to escape?
They considered this early on. In the past few years, many altcoins have at least 50% of their tokens locked up, which means they only need to consider the remaining 20%. Among this 20%, at least 3%-5% will be lost. What does it mean to lose chips that result in losses of ten or twenty times or more? The remaining funds are not much, so they are too lazy to look at it.
Therefore, they only need to consider selling the remaining 15%. If there are sales, they just need to buy in. Their sales are not in the first phase, and as the remaining chips decrease, it becomes easier to pump the price.
At this point, as trading volume increases and they have enough chips under their control, the bots connect to the backend. When chips flow in, they immediately eat them up, and they just need to slowly release the chips they hold. At this point, someone might ask, with so many chips, who can take them? Here’s an important issue: their goal has never been to sell everything! (Eating requires a certain amount of funds, but when there are no counterparties, retail investors will be considered to sell.)
Don't forget, they initially used only 2 million to get 10 million in chips. Assuming the coin price has doubled, they effectively have 20 million in chips, and they only need to sell 10% to break even. (Assuming an additional 5% loss in chip consumption costs)
During a single operation, when the coin price doubles, they can sell 25% of the chips, which already indicates that this operation was very successful. Their initial investment has doubled, and all that’s left is to set a bot to sell when there is inflow. Even if the remaining tokens are worthless, it doesn’t matter.
Seeing 100 for 25 doesn't seem difficult, right? It looks like there's still a pile of chips left, but others have already doubled. The losses during the process can be offset by the subsequent random outflow!
Of course, this refers to slightly stronger operating teams; the weaker ones generally just produce a big red stick on the spot!
In the end, someone will certainly ask where the 50% locked position comes from. All I can say is that it relies on the research done by other teams. Without being locked, others wouldn't choose to operate.
As for the remaining details, we are not operators, so it’s even less likely we would know. Alright, let's stop here for today. If there are brothers with different viewpoints, feel free to discuss in the comments, and let’s broaden our horizons together.
