Bitcoin shows signs of entering a prolonged price increase phase with rising on-chain confidence and narrowing the gap between Spot and perpetual Futures prices.
Important on-chain and derivatives indicators both show potential strength, paving the way for a strong breakout in the Bitcoin market.
MAIN CONTENT
Investor confidence from on-chain data is rising, preparing for a strong bullish market.
The price gap between Spot and perpetual Futures is gradually narrowing, a positive signal for the next upward trend.
Technical analysis shows that Bitcoin maintains upward momentum despite signs of being overbought.
Is Bitcoin preparing for the next price increase?
On-chain and derivative data accurately indicate the consolidation of investor confidence, warning of a potential price explosion in the near future.
Analysts at CryptoQuant and Alphractal note that Bitcoin is building a solid foundation in the on-chain market, along with a narrowing price gap on Binance between Spot and Futures contracts, setting the stage for the next growth phase. These conditions are often precursors to explosive price increases, as seen in late 2020 and early 2021.
What is the current on-chain confidence of Bitcoin?
The on-chain confidence of BTC is rising sharply, indicating that the market is approaching the end of the upward trend but has not yet reached the level of excessive excitement seen in 2017 or 2021.
"The on-chain confidence index is nearing the 1.0 mark, similar to the early months of 2024, but still significantly lower than the peaks that triggered previous explosive price increases, indicating potential for further growth."
Alphractal, on-chain analysis expert, 7/2025
The difference from excessively high excitement creates space for the market to continue recovering without quickly becoming overextended. This allows Bitcoin to maintain a sustainable upward trend without immediately facing significant corrections.
How is the derivatives market reacting to the trend?
Although the derivatives market remains cautious, the price gap between Spot and periodic Futures is narrowing, signaling the catching up of Bitcoin's upward momentum.
According to CryptoQuant, the price gap between perpetual Futures contracts and Spot on Binance remains negative, proving that Spot buyers are still the leading force. However, this gap has narrowed significantly, an event that previously occurred before the parabolic price increases of 2021.
"When the Futures price gap surpasses Spot, the likelihood of BTC entering an acceleration phase is very high. This phenomenon is a precursor to the next price increase."
CryptoQuant, market report, 7/2025
This transition indicates that futures traders may be preparing to shift to a buying position, opening up opportunities for Bitcoin prices to break out strongly in the short term.
How is Bitcoin's current price action analyzed?
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $121,449 with several consecutive price increases. The upward momentum remains intact despite the RSI signaling overbought conditions, indicating that the market is not yet exhausted.
The MACD indicator continues to expand, and the histogram bars remain green, indicating that the short-term upward trend is not weakening. Additionally, the increase in trading volume reinforces the validity of the current price momentum.
However, a small correction is entirely possible due to the overbought condition. But if there is no depletion of momentum, the buyers will control the market and push prices higher before any deep corrections occur.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Bitcoin in a new bull run? On-chain and derivatives data indicate that Bitcoin shows signs of entering a prolonged price increase cycle, based on confidence indicators and price gaps.
What is the current on-chain confidence of Bitcoin? On-chain confidence has not yet reached the highs seen in previous bull runs, indicating there is still room for growth before the market becomes too hot.
How important is the price gap between Spot and Futures? This is a crucial indicator for predicting price trends. When this gap narrows and turns positive, prices may enter a strong acceleration phase.
Is the current technical chart of Bitcoin concerning? Although the RSI indicates overbought conditions, the MACD and volume support the upward trend, suggesting that the upward momentum has not weakened.
When should one prepare for a price correction? A small correction may occur in the overbought territory; however, without clear immediate signs, investors need to closely monitor market momentum.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/bitcoin-khoang-trong-day-gia-len-130k/
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