Dogecoin (DOGE), the most iconic meme coin in the crypto world, has reached a critical moment. Its price is approaching a key demand zone between $0.17 and $0.22 — a range that has historically sparked strong buying activity. However, while technical indicators hint at a potential rally, investors are also watching closely as the probability of DOGE ETF approval in the U.S. is slipping.
🔹 Dogecoin Enters the Decision Zone
On July 1, Dogecoin’s price jumped 5%, reaching $0.18. This rise brought it into a critical demand zone, where price action could turn decisively bullish or bearish. Historically, this area has triggered major buying interest, but if bulls fail to hold the line, a rejection may send DOGE lower once again.
To confirm bullish momentum, Dogecoin needs to close above $0.17 and ultimately break through the Point of Control (PoC) at $0.224, a price zone with the highest historical trading volume. Only then can a sustained upward trend be confirmed.
There are two bullish signs supporting the scenario:
🔹 A rising parallel channel, indicating a persistent uptrend
🔹 RSI at 51, climbing steadily, suggesting strengthening momentum
Still, caution is warranted. If DOGE fails to clear resistance, it could fall back to $0.15, where consolidation may occur before the next major move.
🔻 ETF Optimism Fading – and Confidence Along With It
Investors are increasingly concerned about the chances of a U.S.-based DOGE ETF being approved. Earlier this week, the probability was estimated at 81%, but data from Polymarket shows that it has now fallen to 75%.
One likely reason: Donald Trump’s recent crypto ETF announcement excluded meme coins entirely, including Dogecoin. His team cited excessive volatility as the key reason for omitting such assets from their “blue-chip” crypto product.
Institutional interest in DOGE is waning, and it’s showing in the markets. The long/short ratio for DOGE on Binance has dropped to its lowest level in a month, reflecting weaker confidence from traders and speculators.
⚠️ Summary: Breakout or Breakdown? Dogecoin Faces a Critical Test
Dogecoin is nearing a decisive inflection point. If it can hold the demand zone and push past $0.224, a fresh bullish rally could be underway. But with strong resistance and diminishing ETF confidence, the outlook remains uncertain. The market is watching — and the next move could define DOGE’s short-term fate.
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