More than $5 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire today, and investors should brace for increased volatility—especially during early Friday hours in the European trading session.
Although Bitcoin showed strength during Thursday’s U.S. session and hit new highs, today’s massive options expiration could trigger short-term market turbulence. However, markets typically stabilize shortly after adjusting to the new trading environment.
📊 Key Figures: What’s Expiring?
According to Deribit data, today’s expirations include:
🔹 Bitcoin (BTC):
– Notional value: $4.3 billion
– Open interest: 36,970 contracts
– Put-to-call ratio (PCR): 1.06
– Max pain point: $108,000
🔹 Ethereum (ETH):
– Notional value: $712.35 million
– Open interest: 239,926 contracts
– PCR: 1.11
– Max pain point: $2,600
The "max pain" level is the price at which the largest number of options expire worthless, causing maximum financial loss for option holders. This level often acts as a price magnet during the final hours before expiry.
🧠 Higher PCR = Bearish Sentiment?
Both BTC and ETH show put-to-call ratios above 1, indicating that traders are currently holding more puts than calls. This is typically interpreted as a bearish signal or at least a sign of hedging against potential downturns.
⚠️ Traders Taking Risks with 500x Leverage
Analysts at Greeks.live highlight an extreme level of risk-taking among market participants—with some reportedly trading on up to 500x leverage, which is dangerously high considering current market volatility.
“Some positions appear suicidal. There’s chatter about ‘100% confidence signals’ despite massive risk exposure,” analysts noted.
💹 Market Snapshot: BTC and ETH Defy Gravity
🔸 Bitcoin: Trading above $116,000 after reaching a new all-time high
🔸 Ethereum: Up nearly 7% in 24 hours, now around $2,970
Both assets are well above their respective max pain levels, indicating strong bullish sentiment and resistance to downward pressure.
⏱️ What to Expect?
Options on Deribit are set to expire at 8:00 UTC. While some pullback toward max pain zones is possible, a quick market reset is the more likely outcome, as traders shift focus to weekend movements and macro signals.
📌 Summary
Today’s expiration brings massive volume and heightened market tension. While short-term volatility is likely, the overall sentiment remains bullish—despite widespread hedging strategies. The upcoming weekend may offer new catalysts for movement.
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