[K-line Judge | BTC Daily Unwinding Strategy: Finding three keys to certainty in a volatile market]
—— When the price oscillates narrowly around $109,000, true traders have already glimpsed the direction between technical and policy constraints.
Technical aspect: The tug-of-war between bulls and bears enters deep water, and the key level determines the short-term fate.
Trends and patterns: BTC forms a 'converging triangle' structure around $108,000, with the upper resistance at $109,180 (previous high) and the lower support at $107,400 (Fibonacci 0.618) forming a short-term decision zone. The hourly K-line has continuously tested $109,000 without success, and caution is needed for the 'false breakout' trap — if the closing price cannot hold above $109,500, it may retest the $107,000-$108,000 range. Indicator signals MACD: DIF and DEA stick together above the zero axis, green bars shorten, bullish momentum wanes, caution is needed for top divergence risks. RSI: Daily RSI approaches 60 but is not overbought, 4-hour RSI oscillates around 50, showing neutral but cautious market sentiment. Trading volume: At a low volume level (24H trading volume about 78 million), indicating a change in trend is imminent, a breakout needs to increase to over 150 million.
News aspect: Three major variables are rewriting the rules of the game.
Regulatory resonance: The U.S. SEC's approval of the Solana ETF is on a countdown (mid to late July). If approved, it may divert BTC funds but will positively impact liquidity in the crypto market in the long term. UK FCA's stablecoin new regulations come into effect, requiring USDT/USDC to have 100% reserve coverage, which may cause market volatility in the short term but enhance institutional confidence in the long term. Institutional trends: MicroStrategy holds over 597,000 BTC (as of November 2024), becoming the largest corporate holder, with its 'buy and never sell' strategy forming a price floor. BlackRock's IBIT fund size surpasses $75.5 billion (as of July 8) and holds 700,307 BTC, with strong ongoing institutional demand. A mysterious whale activated an address from 14 years ago, transferring 80,000 BTC to a new address, currently showing no large-scale selling pressure, with limited market impact. Macro variables: Expectations for the European Central Bank to cut interest rates in September are rising, which may put pressure on the dollar index and benefit BTC and other safe-haven assets.
K-line Judge: Supreme exclusive strategy: Survival rules in a volatile market.
Short-term strategy: Bulls: If it breaks above $109,000 and trading volume expands, you can small-scale chase the rise, targeting $112,000 (Fibonacci 1.618 extension). Bears: If it falls below the $107,000 support, short near $108,000 on a rebound, with a stop loss at $109,000 and a target of $104,000 (daily Bollinger band middle track). Mid to long-term perspective: Institutions continue to hoard coins + ETF expansion + interest rate cut cycle, breaking above $120,000 within the year for BTC is highly likely, but caution is needed for the August 'summer off-season' effect. Pay attention to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on July 31; if Powell releases dovish signals, it may become a catalyst for the market.
Accurate strikes, the wave band is king! The K-line judge team privately arranges layouts to help you stabilize the market launch point with low leverage contracts and activate the asset doubling engine!#SECETF审批 #美国加征关税