《The Dollar's Veil is Torn! The 99.5 Life-and-Death Line Will Battle Tonight, Countdown to the Collapse of a 37-Year Peak》
1. The Four Pillars of Dollar Hegemony are Fully CollapsingHigh Interest Rates Become Ineffective: Expectations for a Fed rate cut in September are rising, and the disappearance of interest rate differentials leads to capital outflows.Balance Sheet Reduction Backfires: The scarcity of the dollar is offset by debt monetization, with US debt reaching $36 trillion (121% of GDP).Geopolitical Conflicts Fail: The abuse of SWIFT sanctions (such as freezing Russian foreign exchange) accelerates the de-dollarization by various countries, with 38% of Saudi oil being settled in RMB.Monetization Overdraws Credit: The proportion of dollars in global central bank foreign exchange reserves plummets to 58% (a 30-year low), while the proportion of RMB rises to 6.5%.
2. September Rate Cut Triggers Dollar Collapse CycleVicious Chain: Rate cut → Dollar depreciation → US debt sell-off (global central banks to sell $48 billion in 2025) → Dollar credit collapses.Debt Crisis: 45% of the $36 trillion US debt is short-term, and $16.2 trillion needs to be refinanced in 2025, with the overseas holding ratio plummeting to 23%.
Key Conclusion: The probability of US debt collapsing within five years surges, and dollar hegemony is like a “maxed-out credit card.”
3. Technical Life-and-Death Line: The 99.5 Threshold
If it holds above 99.5: The rebound space is capped by 100.18 (52-week high), making it difficult to change the weak trend.If it falls below 98.97: The upward trend since 2008 is completely reversed, opening up downward space.
4. Emergency Response Strategies for Investors
Hedge Against Dollar Risks: Increase allocation to gold (central bank gold purchases exceed 1,000 tons in 2025); position in digital RMB (cross-border payment efficiency in 7 seconds).Shift to Emerging Markets: Regions with high exchange rate elasticity such as India and Vietnam present “devaluation recovery dividends.”Stay Away from US Debt: A $36 trillion debt volcano, with the overseas takeover ratio dropping to 26.4%.
Iron Rule: Going against the trend = suicide! The collapse of dollar hegemony is an historical inevitability.
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