#SECETF审批 The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has recently shown a significant policy shift in the approval of cryptocurrency ETFs, mainly reflected in the following key developments:
1. Accelerated Approval Process and New Framework
Unified Approval Standards: The SEC is considering establishing a new framework that allows exchanges to directly list cryptocurrency ETFs under unified standards, exempting them from the cumbersome process of submitting 19b-4 filings case by case. It is expected that trading platforms could complete the launch within 75 days. The draft of this framework may be announced this month, and after implementation in September-October, it could open the "gates" for non-Bitcoin ETFs like SOL, XRP, etc.
Phased Advancement Strategy: The SEC is adopting an approval path of "first Bitcoin, then Ethereum, followed by mixed assets". Recent conditional approval for Grayscale's mixed cryptocurrency fund shows its phased opening attitude.
2. Key Asset Approval Dynamics
Litecoin (LTC): The SEC has postponed the final review of Grayscale's Litecoin ETF to October 10, but since LTC has not been classified as a security, the approval probability is significantly higher than for competing tokens like SOL, XRP, etc.
Dogecoin (DOGE): 21Shares' spot DOGE ETF has entered the 19b-4 review process, and if approved, it will become the first meme token included in the mainstream financial system.
Solana (SOL): The SEC provided constructive feedback on the staking details of the SOL ETF, and the market expects it to be in the first tier of potential approvals in 2025 alongside LTC.
3. Regulatory Attitude Shift
Internal Reform: The SEC has restructured its cryptocurrency enforcement team and suspended some litigation cases. The Republican leadership is pushing for a policy shift, and the newly released 12-page cryptocurrency fund framework document marks the beginning of regulatory easing.
Physical Redemption Mechanism: SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce has publicly hinted at the approval of physical redemption for cryptocurrency ETFs, further lowering the participation threshold for institutions.
4. Market Impact Forecast
Bloomberg analysts estimate that the approval probability for SOL, XRP, and LTC ETFs is 95%, with meme coin ETFs like DOGE, ADA, and DOT also having a 90% likelihood. After the new framework is implemented, it may trigger the concentrated listing of dozens of cryptocurrency ETFs.